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Market Watch

Why Exchange Traded Funds are only set to grow

Posted On:Mar 14th, 2017     Posted In:Rss-feed-market    Posted By:Provision Wealth

Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) are increasingly becoming a crucial part of an investor’s tool kit, offering exposure to factor tilts and different asset classes and geographies in a highly liquid, simple and cost-effective manner. They have proved incredibly popular with investors and financial advisers. ETF growth is expected to continue as investor awareness increases and continued product innovation

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Why Exchange Traded Funds are only set to growExchange Traded Funds (ETFs) are increasingly becoming a crucial part of an investor’s tool kit, offering exposure to factor tilts and different asset classes and geographies in a highly liquid, simple and cost-effective manner. They have proved incredibly popular with investors and financial advisers. ETF growth is expected to continue as investor awareness increases and continued product innovation takes place. Active Exchange Traded Funds (Active ETFs) are at the forefront of this innovation in Australia.

How does an ETF work?

In essence, an ETF functions as a way to gain fractional ownership over a portfolio of securities or other assets. ETFs are open-ended, similar to a traditional managed fund, but are traded on an exchange (such as the ASX) just like a share. ETFs experience live price changes throughout the day as they are bought and sold on market. ETFs generally aim to replicate a market index exposure, such as the S&P 500, and provide investors with the returns of that asset class – less any fees.

The Global ETF Market

ETFs are one of the fastest growing categories of investment products in the world, with over US$3.8 trillion of assets held in over 6,700 products globally. A key reason for their popularity is that they exhibit all the advantages of stocks, such as being easy to trade and liquidity, coupled with the benefits of managed funds, such as diversification.

The Australian ETF Industry

The Australian ETF industry, while comparatively small on a global scale, has grown dramatically over the last few years. As the chart below shows, the total market capitalisation of all ETF assets has grown from around A$6 billion in December 2012 to over A$25 billion in December 2016.


Source: BetaShares Australian ETF Review – year end 2016 report, 31 January 2017

Australia’s Active ETFs

There has long been a desire to give retail investors in Australia direct and straightforward access to invest in managed funds. While the Listed Investment Company (LIC) has been quite a popular mechanism, LICs are closed-ended and as such can often trade at a premium or discount to the portfolio’s Net Asset Value(NAV), meaning that investor performance does not always reflect performance of the underlying securities. But now Active ETFs have been launched, providing a flexible and more accurate method for retail investors to gain direct access to active managed funds.

Active ETFs enable delivery of the active investment management capabilities, which aim to outperform their benchmark or index, unlike passive ETFs. Active ETFs allow for new units to be added or subtracted on a daily basis according to investor demand (not possible under the LIC structure), so they generally trade close to the NAV of all the underlying securities. Additionally, Active ETFs can also be considered more transparent than traditional managed funds as they provide intra-day pricing via the exchange, whereas traditional managed fund prices are only set once per day or less frequently.

AMP Capital has recently launched three Active ETFs that aim to replicate the portfolios of some of our most successful active managed funds. They are:

  • DMKT – AMP Capital Dynamic Markets Fund (Hedge Fund)

  • GLIN – AMP Capital Global Infrastructure Securities Fund (Unhedged) (Managed Fund)

  • RENT – AMP Capital Global Property Securities Fund (Unhedged) (Managed Fund)

What are the investor benefits of AMP Capital’s Active ETFs?

  • Access: Active ETFs can be accessed on the ASX using any broker.

  • Liquidity: The Active ETFs act as their own market maker to provide liquidity for investors.

  • Diversification: All AMP Capital Active ETFs offer exposure outside of the Australian stock market and provide access to a full portfolio of diversified exposure in just one trade.

  • Ease: Active ETFs can be managed and reported-on alongside shares and all other broker portfolio holdings.

The risks of investing in ETFs

There are risks in allocating large portions of capital to highly liquid ETFs when the underlying assets they hold are relatively illiquid. In such a scenario, it may not be possible to liquidate the underlying assets to meet the redemption demand in extreme selloffs. This scenario occurred on 8 August, 2015 when China devalued the Renminbi (CNY) and some ETFs sold off heavily meaning that they were in fact trading at a significant discount to their NAV. This occurred again on 9 November, 2016 in the wake of Donald Trump’s surprise victory in the US elections.

This issue also highlights one of the major market impacts that ETFs are creating. Given that many people trade ETFs for non-active stock selection reasons, the correlation between the market and large cap stocks has grown dramatically as ETF trading has proliferated, because these stocks see the biggest index ETF trade flows.

Conclusion

ETFs have taken off and are undoubtedly changing the investment landscape across the world. The addition of Active ETFs in Australia has broadened their usability by allowing investors access to active investment management capabilities via the simple and clean ETF structure. As with any investment, investors need to take precautions by analysing how ETFs and Active ETFs are structured and it’s important they are aware of the risks and associated costs. In general, so long as these precautions are adhered to, ETFs can be a valuable addition to portfolios.

For more information on AMP Capital’s Active ETFs please click here.

Source: AMP Capital 10 March 2017

Author
Angus Nicholson, Investment Strategist

BetaShares Capital Ltd (ACN 139 566 868, AFSL 341181 (“BetaShares”) is the responsible entity and the issuer of units in the AMP CAPITAL DYNAMIC MARKETS FUND (HEDGE FUND), AMP CAPITAL GLOBAL INFRASTRUCTURE SECURITIES FUND (UNHEDGED) (MANAGED FUND), AMP CAPITAL GLOBAL PROPERTY SECURITIES FUND (UNHEDGED) (MANAGED FUND), (each a “Fund”). AMP Capital is the investment manager of the Funds and has been appointed by the responsible entity to provide investment management and associated services in respect of the Funds. Investors should consider the Product Disclosure Statement (PDS) for the relevant Fund before making any decision regarding the Fund. The PDS contains important information about investing in each Fund and it is important investors read the PDS before making a decision about whether to acquire, continue to hold or dispose of units in the Funds. Neither BetaShares, AMP Capital, nor any other company in the AMP Group guarantees the repayment of capital or the performance of any product or any particular rate of return referred to in this information.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

While every care has been taken in the preparation of this information, BetaShares and AMP Capital make no representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any statement in it including without limitation, any forecasts. This content has been prepared for the purpose of providing general information, without taking account of any particular investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Investors should, before making any investment decisions, consider the appropriateness of this information, and seek professional advice, having regard to their objectives, financial situation and needs.

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How savvy advisers can use currency to navigate volatile times

Posted On:Mar 01st, 2017     Posted In:Rss-feed-market    Posted By:Provision Wealth
Advisers spend a lot of time on strategic asset allocation decisions, particularly the choice between growth and defensive assets. But in the current environment of low rates and high volatility, we think that advisers need spend more time on another aspect of clients’ portfolios: their exposure to currencies.

Not only does currency exposure have a ‘whole of portfolio’

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Advisers spend a lot of time on strategic asset allocation decisions, particularly the choice between growth and defensive assets. But in the current environment of low rates and high volatility, we think that advisers need spend more time on another aspect of clients’ portfolios: their exposure to currencies.

How savvy advisers can use currency to navigate volatile times

Not only does currency exposure have a ‘whole of portfolio’ impact, it can have a significant bearing on both a client’s wealth accumulation and the delivery of a sustainable income.

Currency has always been significant for Australian investors. But as clients increase their exposure to international assets, and as policy makers commandeer currencies as de-facto policy levers, managing currency exposure has never been more important.

The smart adviser now sees currencies as more than a risk to manage; they can use currency exposure as a powerful tool to navigate this complex investment landscape and to manage risk and return of their clients’ portfolios.

Hedging: too cautious?

There is a defensible view among some people that a client’s portfolio should be fully hedged. They may make a theoretical case that currency risk isn’t rewarded in the same way that credit risk is, for example, and therefore it shouldn’t be in a portfolio. They would no doubt also emphasise the past few decades when hedging foreign currency has boosted returns for Australians. From 1988 to 2015, hedging foreign currency exposure of global shares increased returns by 2.2 per cent per annum relative to being unhedged.

That return enhancement, of course, broadly represents a return premium from Australia’s higher real (inflation-adjusted) cash rates.

But we could caution against simple extrapolation of historical experience. The world has changed. In a low-yield environment, it’s likely Australia’s real cash rate premium will be lower, cutting the benefits of hedging.

We also believe the fully hedged view is myopic because Australia is a small, open economy. Currency movement impacts cash flows from local assets, and the prices clients pay for goods and services.

Protecting clients against downturns

Hedging also removes a key benefit of foreign currency exposure: diversification during periods of share market weakness; and particularly when an Australian economic downturn triggers that weakness, which could seriously impact a heavily Australian-biased portfolio. Holding some of our exposure in foreign currency provides a natural safety valve for economic downturns.

This pattern has repeated many times. For example, during the extreme period of the GFC, from December 2006 to 2009, the realised volatility of an MSCI World (ex-Australia) equity index hedged into Australian dollars was 20.2 per cent. But volatility of the unhedged index was just 14.5 per cent.

We believe that, because Australian dollar depreciation is normally associated with an economic downturn, there is a case for introducing a naked foreign currency position to reduce the volatility of any equity portfolio. That could also go one step further and include an Australian-only portfolio. The effectiveness of such a position will vary with changing conditions however, including the cause and location of the downturn.

Why clients should have currency exposure now

But how should advisers decide the specific level of foreign currency exposure for their clients’ portfolios?

History suggests that, as mentioned, holding some foreign exchange has provided protection in downturns and market dislocation. But the trade-off is that we are expecting to earn a lower interest rate when we hold that foreign currency, a drag on returns. Advisers need to consider this trade off between diversification and return drag from foreign currency exposure.

Our modelling supports the view that in the current environment there are benefits to having some foreign currency exposure in your clients’ portfolios.

If we look at a typical balanced fund, expected volatility of the total portfolio falls as the exposure to a foreign basket of currencies rises. At the same time the fund’s expected return is also falling, as the net yield on the fund falls as foreign currency rises. The expected Sharpe Ratio (a measure of expected return relative to risk) overall is falling slightly. That is, the risk-adjusted return becomes less attractive as the return drag of currency exposure is outweighing the volatility reduction of diversification. So, if a client wants to minimise risk, then more foreign currency should be held.

But if a client wants to maximise returns against risk, then there is an argument for holding no foreign currency, that is being fully hedged. These expectations however assume that everything stays as is and we receive the additional yield from hedging. There is an additional potential benefit from holding foreign currency as ‘crash protection’, where the payoff from the FX exposure is actually more beneficial in severe events rather than day to day fluctuations.

The typical balanced fund has 20 per cent of its value exposed to foreign currency, which represents, on average, a step towards risk reduction.

A detour: bonds versus currency exposure

As a brief aside, an interesting question facing many advisers is the defensive nature of bonds in their client’s portfolio. Record-low yield, and the potential damage to a portfolio from rate rises, means many are questioning bonds’ usefulness in their traditional role as a ‘defensive’ asset.

Interestingly, our modelling shows that in today’s environment the defensive benefits of bonds remain reasonably like FX, but that both work in different ways. Bonds offer slightly better yield levels, but not as much diversification benefit. Importantly they also appear to offer less benefit in severe market falls, particularly from today’s starting point.

Going beyond 20 per cent

What if advisers want to consider the currency decision beyond the position of leaving 20 per cent of foreign currency unhedged?

If the Australian dollar is pro-cyclical (it appreciates in good times), shouldn’t we be short other pro-cyclical currencies with similar characteristics? Performance drag could also be reduced by holding currencies with better valuations and that are cheaper to hold. Additionally, advisers could identify more targeted safe-haven currencies in addition to just pro cyclical currencies.

Our modelling shows that targeting a broader set of currency pairs that provide diversification and a valuation premium has offered both diversification and a much healthier positive return premium of 2.7 per cent than from just being outright short the Australian dollar.

A structured approach

Some advisers will have limited ability to implement a currency overlay and will revert to the more passive position of leaving a proportion of foreign assets unhedged. This approach has been found to be effective historically, with reason to expect a small drag on returns over time.

Advisers will also have access to funds that have the scope to implement a more holistically managed currency program where currency decisions play an important role in managing the risk profile of the fund, such as the AMP Capital Multi Asset Fund.

All up, we believe advisers can marry the essential components of what currencies can bring to a portfolio:

  • Treating currency as a separate investment decision

  • Targeting currencies to be short that offer diversifying characteristics such as those of cyclically driven economies (and vice versa)

  • Favour those that offer deviation from value

  • Be aware of the cost of holding currency exposures

Advisers need to employ a structured approach to managing foreign exposure for their clients’ portfolios and to consider their clients’ objectives, the potential diversification benefits of foreign currency exposure, and particularly their potential to act as a hedge during large market events.

Author: Matthew Hopkins, Senior Portfolio Manager, AMP Capital

Source: AMP Capital 10 Feb 2017

Important note: While every care has been taken in the preparation of this document, AMP Capital Investors Limited (ABN 59 001 777 591, AFSL 232497) and AMP Capital Funds Management Limited (ABN 15 159 557 721, AFSL 426455) make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy or completeness of any statement in it including, without limitation, any forecasts. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This document has been prepared for the purpose of providing general information, without taking account of any particular investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. An investor should, before making any investment decisions, consider the appropriateness of the information in this document, and seek professional advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation and needs. This document is solely for the use of the party to whom it is provided.

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Opportunities and challenges: the sharing accommodation economy

Posted On:Feb 14th, 2017     Posted In:Rss-feed-market    Posted By:Provision Wealth

In September of 2016, Airbnb raised US$850 million in new equity, valuing the company at US$30 billion dollars and subsequently crowning it the most valuable lodging provider in the world without owning a single room. It is a particularly 21st century phenomenon that a company that started eight years ago, with no tangible product of its own, can overtake some

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In September of 2016, Airbnb raised US$850 million in new equity, valuing the company at US$30 billion dollars and subsequently crowning it the most valuable lodging provider in the world without owning a single room. It is a particularly 21st century phenomenon that a company that started eight years ago, with no tangible product of its own, can overtake some of the most storied and well-known brands in the lodging industry.

Opportunities and challenges: the sharing accommodation economy

During the last 12 months alone, Airbnb grew its US listings by almost 70 per cent and nights booked increased a staggering 125 per cent to almost 40 million room nights1. On these numbers, Airbnb has captured more than 3 per cent of US lodging demand within the last eight years, and is gaining share rapidly.

With each month that passes, the impact of Airbnb becomes more pervasive, and its effects on lodging occupancy and pricing power will become more visible. In the listed space, this will manifest in slower revenue growth, and weaker profitability. Fortunately, the competition from providers such as Airbnb will not be felt equally across the industry. Investors can benefit by finding the names that are insulated from the sharing economy. This article seeks to highlight the opportunities and challenges posed by the sharing economy for real estate investors.

Sharing Economy

The accommodation sharing economy refers to the growing number of property owners who are making their dwellings available for short-term rentals. These short-term rentals compete with traditional lodging providers by offering an alternative, often cost-effective, form of accommodation in major markets. The accommodation sharing economy is facilitated via a number of internet platforms, most notably Airbnb, which have greatly boosted the viability of short-term rentals as an alternative to traditional hotels. These new platforms increase the ease of marketing properties, managing bookings and facilitating payment, and have led to an explosion in the use of short term rentals.

Since its inception in 2008, Airbnb has grown to have more than two million listings in more than 191 countries2 on its website. This compares to the 1.1million rooms in more than 100 countries of the world’s largest lodging company, the newly combined Starwood-Marriott entity3.

While it is equally true that services like those provided through Airbnb may have enticed more people to travel, thus adding to incremental demand, it is a stretch to claim that the new supply from the sharing economy is having no impact on occupancy levels and pricing power of the traditional hotel sector.

Recent research by commercial real estate company CBRE shows that Airbnb hosts respond to incentives in a similar way to the traditional lodging market just with greater speed and flexibility. Firstly, when demand is strong and pricing can be set at attractive levels, additional supply is brought online. The higher the rate that a host can achieve, the more pronounced the supply response. This highlights one of the key features of the sharing economy; that of an increased elasticity of supply where accommodation capacity can be added and withdrawn rapidly in response to changes in available pricing.

Quantifying the exact impacts of Airbnb is a difficult task because there are so many moving pieces, and demand in the lodging sector is cyclical and sensitive to changes in the broader economy. However, anecdotal evidence from lodging REIT management teams, such as Mike Barnello, CEO at LaSalle Hotel Properties4, suggests that shadow supply from the sharing economy is reducing pricing power by acting as a release in times of extreme demand. This is confirmed by a recent Morgan Stanley report, which showed that the number of compression nights (nights where occupancy is greater than 95 per cent) has declined in the year to May 2016 versus the same period a year ago. This has occurred at a time when average occupancy is close to all-time highs across the market, and supply and demand growth is in balance. This suggests that there has been an increase in the amount of leakage from the traditional lodging sector at times of extreme demand.

Implications for Real Estate

Diversification
Companies with concentrated portfolios that are exposed to markets with a high degree of sharing economy penetration should be penalised so as to reflect the potential reduction in pricing power and impacts on occupancy.

Lower Operating Leverage
Given potentially lower pricing power and the downward pressure on revenues resulting from an increasingly cost conscious customer set, companies with lower operating leverage should trade at a premium through cycle to reflect more attractive risk/return characteristics. On this basis, the C-corps are seen as relatively more attractive than the lodging REITs.

Product Differentiation
Commodity-like lodging offerings with lower levels of amenities and reduced service will face the most intense competition from the sharing economy and are most at risk of price competition, loss of market share and the resultant impacts on profitability. The REITs are well placed to control the physical quality of their properties but this may manifest in a higher capex load going forward.

Ability to Control Their Own Destiny
The ability to react and respond to the threats posed by technology should command a premium. This slightly favours the lodging C-Corps over the REITs as they can adjust many aspects of the lodging experience including booking terms and conditions, branding and marketing, loyalty program benefits, and brand standards/product offering.

Low Financial Leverage
In an environment of variable supply and lower pricing power, it is not unreasonable to expect a higher level of volatility in occupancy and rate growth. Consequently, revenue growth will also be more variable, and companies which maintain a lower level of financial leverage should command a valuation premium.

Conclusion

In an environment where corporate profitability has been under pressure and consumers have become more cost conscious, it is evident that technology will play an increasingly important role in helping customers stretch their travel budgets. On the supply side, technologies like those that facilitate the sharing economy have given rise to cost-effective alternatives to traditional lodging and will put downward pressure on pricing power in the lodging sector.

Going forward, it will be important for hotel owners to be proactive and nimble in order to stay ahead of technological progress. Companies that are slow to react may be shocked at how quickly they can lose market share either to new alternatives or to their competitors.

As a cyclical sector, lodging will always have a role in a global real estate portfolio. The ability to reprice rents daily means that lodging names can take advantage of changing economic conditions immediately. As portfolio managers, the ability to take active positions in names with exposure to specific geographies or market segments can lead to opportunities to generate significant alpha through the cycle. Combining a local presence with a global vantage can help identify the best opportunities as regions are never perfectly in synch from an economic perspective. In times like the present, where growth in the lodging sector is anaemic but still positive, one must be mindful of the multitude of factors that can impact lodging company profitability, whether they be macroeconomic in nature or longer term changes in industry structure, and position accordingly.

For more, read our whitepaper  HeartBreak Hotel – Opportunities and challenges posed by the sharing economy which highlights the opportunities and challenges for real estate investors.

Author: James Holliday-Smith, Portfolio Manager/Analyst, Global Listed Infrastructure, AMP Capital

Source: AMP Capital 10 Feb 2017

1Airbnb update from AirDNA; Growth Ahead of Expectations BofAML Research, September 2016
2 www.airbnb.com, May 2016
3Marriott International to Acquire Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide, Creating The World’s Largest Hotel Company, Marriott International merger press release, 16 November 2015 www.marriott.com

Important note: While every care has been taken in the preparation of this document, AMP Capital Investors Limited (ABN 59 001 777 591, AFSL 232497) and AMP Capital Funds Management Limited (ABN 15 159 557 721, AFSL 426455) make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy or completeness of any statement in it including, without limitation, any forecasts. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This document has been prepared for the purpose of providing general information, without taking account of any particular investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. An investor should, before making any investment decisions, consider the appropriateness of the information in this document, and seek professional advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation and needs. This document is solely for the use of the party to whom it is provided.

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Is gender fairness a secret to investment outperformance?

Posted On:Feb 14th, 2017     Posted In:Rss-feed-market    Posted By:Provision Wealth

I recently had an ‘a-ha’ moment. I was sitting in yet another room full of women talking about the importance of gender diversity. It dawned on me that we’ve talked about diversity for so long that we’ve become dulled to the issue. We’ve heard the arguments so many times that we’ve stopped listening.

Advisers might have a similar numbed

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I recently had an ‘a-ha’ moment. I was sitting in yet another room full of women talking about the importance of gender diversity. It dawned on me that we’ve talked about diversity for so long that we’ve become dulled to the issue. We’ve heard the arguments so many times that we’ve stopped listening.

Is gender fairness a secret to investment outperformance?

Advisers might have a similar numbed response: what has gender diversity got to do with delivering my clients’ financial goals?

As it turns out, a lot. Research shows that companies and fund managers with more women deliver better performance. That, of course, means better performance for your clients’ portfolios.

In an environment of low growth and low returns, focusing on gender diversity provides an edge.

And in a broader sense, to reignite the gender debate we need to reframe the gender issue from being about ‘fairness’, or being ‘smart’ — to being about the amazing benefits women bring to companies.

A long way, but more work to be done

I started at AMP 32 years ago when I joined the graduate recruitment program. It surprises me that after all this time we’re still talking about gender diversity.

There is no doubt that progress has been made. In 1984 Australia passed the Sex Discrimination Act to eliminate discrimination based on sex, marital status or pregnancy. Initiatives in Australia over the last five years have resulted in greater gender diversity on company boards. Pleasingly, in 2015 almost half of all new board appointments in Australia were women.

But much remains to be done. Most Australian boards and management teams are still predominantly male. The national gender pay gap in Australia is currently 17.3 per cent, so by the time women enter retirement they have superannuation balances around half that of men.

In Australia, women comprise 46 per cent of all employees, but despite women achieving higher levels of education than men, women hold only 14 per cent of chair positions, 15 per cent of CEO positions and 27 per cent of key management personnel positions.

From the right thing to the smart thing

With more to be done how do we overcome gender complacency? How do we reignite the gender debate?

I believe we need to start by highlighting the real results that gender diversity delivers. In the case of advisers, that’s smarter and better companies and funds to invest in, and better outcomes for clients.

When society first focussed on diversity and anti-discrimination based on gender, it was a moral and ethical issue. But we shouldn’t see it only as the ‘right’ thing to do, but increasingly the ‘smart’ and also the ‘necessary’ thing to do.

More women, better decisions

AMP Capital has long argued that advisers and investors benefit from digging deeper and looking beyond financial statements when valuing companies. The greatest driver of company value is not what you can see, but what lies beneath the surface.

If you accept that a company’s value is largely driven by the actions of its people, it follows that teams best able to generate strong returns for shareholders will be those that are happy, engaged, collectively intelligent but also cognitively diverse.

Research has found that when women are added to decision-making groups, the groups are likely to have increased focus on ethics, risk management, reputation and cooperation, as well as on the context of the problem and the broader impact of decisions.

That’s vital in a more complicated and fast-moving world. Companies are likely to be most successful when they have assembled diverse teams who not only understand customers and disrupters but can also brainstorm what can (and can’t) be done.

More women, better performance

What does that mean for company performance? The research is clear that gender diversity leads to better results.

Credit Suisse and Catalyst research shows that, even after adjusting for sectoral impacts, companies with more women generally demonstrate higher returns on assets, higher return on sales and higher return on invested capital. These companies also exhibit lower risk of insolvency and higher dividend payouts.

A 2015, McKinsey report, which looked at 366 public companies across the world, found companies in the top quartile for gender diversity are 15 per cent more likely to have financial returns above their national industry median. And on AMP Capital’s own assessment, there is a positive correlation between a company’s governance quality and the number of women directors.

The research also has implications for allocations to investment teams. If cognitive diversity improves decision making, it is logical to conclude that cognitively diverse investment teams will make better investment decisions.

Since investing began, trading rooms have tended to be full of competitive men, testosterone and risk-taking. While women are yet to have a significant presence, it is anticipated that when their numbers grow the culture will become a more socially perceptive one, with more focus on collaboration and inclusiveness and less on risk-taking.

So as advisers and investors, it is recommended you focus on investing in companies – and indeed investment managers — that promote gender diversity.

A role for all us

But more broadly, we need to remember that more needs to be done to create a fairer society, which as we’ve seen will deliver clients a broader investable universe of smarter more successful companies.

Yes, good progress has been made, but there is some way to go before women make up 30 per cent of every Australian board of directors.

Ideally advisers and investors should get involved by encouraging companies to promote an inclusive culture from the CEO down, make diversity a KPI and convince men that they have nothing to lose.

Companies need to level the playing field and make sure each person’s voice is heard regardless of gender, decrease bias in recruitment with gender balanced short-lists and interviewing panels, and pay men and women equally.

AMP Capital, for example, encourages the companies we invest in to address roadblocks such as unconscious bias and to cast the net more widely when recruiting. For the pool of talented women to be developed and recognised, there needs to be a clear focus on pay parity and the opportunities for women to gain executive experience.

Advisers and investors have a key role to play in driving these changes. Not only will we all benefit from a fairer society, but your clients will also benefit from smarter companies and better investment returns.

Author: Karin Halliday, Senior Manager, Corporate Governance, AMP Capital

Source: AMP Capital 10 Feb 2017

Important note: While every care has been taken in the preparation of this document, AMP Capital Investors Limited (ABN 59 001 777 591, AFSL 232497) and AMP Capital Funds Management Limited (ABN 15 159 557 721, AFSL 426455) make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy or completeness of any statement in it including, without limitation, any forecasts. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This document has been prepared for the purpose of providing general information, without taking account of any particular investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. An investor should, before making any investment decisions, consider the appropriateness of the information in this document, and seek professional advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation and needs. This document is solely for the use of the party to whom it is provided.

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February 2017 Statement by Philip Lowe, Governor: Monetary Policy Decision

Posted On:Feb 07th, 2017     Posted In:Rss-feed-market    Posted By:Provision Wealth

At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 1.50 per cent.

Conditions in the global economy have improved over recent months. Business and consumer confidence have both picked up. Above-trend growth is expected in a number of advanced economies, although uncertainties remain. In China, growth was stronger over the second half of 2016,

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At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 1.50 per cent.

Conditions in the global economy have improved over recent months. Business and consumer confidence have both picked up. Above-trend growth is expected in a number of advanced economies, although uncertainties remain. In China, growth was stronger over the second half of 2016, supported by higher spending on infrastructure and property construction. This composition of growth and the rapid increase in borrowing mean that the medium-term risks to Chinese growth remain. The improvement in the global economy has contributed to higher commodity prices, which are providing a boost to Australia’s national income.

Headline inflation rates have moved higher in most countries, partly reflecting the higher commodity prices. Long-term bond yields have also moved higher, although in a historical context they remain low. Interest rates have increased in the United States and there is no longer an expectation of further monetary easing in other major economies. Financial markets have been functioning effectively and stock markets have mostly risen.

In Australia, the economy is continuing its transition following the end of the mining investment boom. GDP was weaker than expected in the September quarter, largely reflecting temporary factors. A return to reasonable growth is expected in the December quarter.

The Bank’s central scenario remains for economic growth to be around 3 per cent over the next couple of years. Growth will be boosted by further increases in resource exports and by the period of declining mining investment coming to an end. Consumption growth is expected to pick up from recent outcomes, but to remain moderate. Some further pick-up in non-mining business investment is also expected.

The outlook continues to be supported by the low level of interest rates. Financial institutions remain in a position to lend. The depreciation of the exchange rate since 2013 has also assisted the economy in its transition following the mining investment boom. An appreciating exchange rate would complicate this adjustment.

Labour market indicators continue to be mixed and there is considerable variation in employment outcomes across the country. The unemployment rate has moved a little higher recently, but growth in full-time employment turned positive late in 2016. The forward-looking indicators point to continued expansion in employment over the period ahead.

Inflation remains quite low. The December quarter outcome was as expected, with both headline and underlying inflation of around 1½ per cent. The Bank’s inflation forecasts are largely unchanged. The continuing subdued growth in labour costs means that inflation is expected to remain low for some time. Headline inflation is expected to pick up over the course of 2017 to be above 2 per cent, with the rise in underlying inflation expected to be a bit more gradual.

Conditions in the housing market vary considerably around the country. In some markets, conditions have strengthened further and prices are rising briskly. In other markets, prices are declining. In the eastern capital cities, a considerable additional supply of apartments is scheduled to come on stream over the next couple of years. Growth in rents is the slowest for a couple of decades. Borrowing for housing has picked up a little, with stronger demand by investors. With leverage increasing, supervisory measures have strengthened lending standards and some lenders are taking a more cautious attitude to lending in certain segments.

Taking account of the available information, and having eased monetary policy in 2016, the Board judged that holding the stance of policy unchanged at this meeting would be consistent with sustainable growth in the economy and achieving the inflation target over time.

Source: RBA 7th February 2017

Enquiries

Media and Communications
Secretary’s Department
Reserve Bank of Australia
SYDNEY

Phone: +61 2 9551 9720
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Tourist attraction: Investing in Australia’s surging visitor numbers

Posted On:Jan 13th, 2017     Posted In:Rss-feed-market    Posted By:Provision Wealth

Record numbers of visitors pouring into Australia suggest flights full of free-spending tourists landing at crowded airports around the country, cramming through immigration to dash to the nearest shopping centre and lift the nation’s retail sales figures as quickly as possible.

Actually, the description is only a slight exaggeration as Australia’s tourism industry undergoes resurgence, thanks in large part

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Record numbers of visitors pouring into Australia suggest flights full of free-spending tourists landing at crowded airports around the country, cramming through immigration to dash to the nearest shopping centre and lift the nation’s retail sales figures as quickly as possible.

Actually, the description is only a slight exaggeration as Australia’s tourism industry undergoes resurgence, thanks in large part to record arrivals from China. The buoyant visitor numbers suggest several themes worth considering. Here, we look at two.

How busy are we?

A record 7.8 million short-term visitors arrived in Australia1 over the year to June 2016, up 44% from June 2006. New Zealand remained the top contributor to our short-term visitor numbers, with 1.3 million people arriving from across the Tasman, up 23% from 1 million a decade ago.

However, the number of visitors from China was a close second at 1.15 million, nearly quadruple the 294,000 visitors just 10 years ago.

Given the robust visitor data, investing in airline shares such as Qantas Airways (QAN) and Virgin Australia Holdings (VAH) might seem a no-brainer. However, airlines in general have a long track record of delivering poor returns through the business cycle, mainly because its two largest costs – oil and labour – are difficult to control.

Also, Australian-based airlines compete with rivals that may not have the same competitive constraints. For example, airlines based in the Middle East have access to fuel at cheaper prices and their labour laws are different to Australia’s heavily unionised environment.

Capturing the investment theme of visitor spending

Nonetheless, inbound travellers from China are the key target market for Australia’s tourism sector due to their sheer numbers and track record for growth so it would be beneficial to pinpoint a way to invest in this trend. 
Chinese tourists make a large contribution to Australia’s economy, spending on average five times as much as tourists from other countries. 
And while most tourists from China are destined for our major cities, there is growing evidence that Chinese tourists are regionalising their visits. 

For example, Gold Coast Airport expects growth of 7-8% a year from China over the next five years and is opening a new international terminal in 2018 to accommodate them. A key commercial focus for the Gold Coast Airport is attracting a new Chinese carrier since two-thirds of Chinese tourists landing at Brisbane Airport actually bypass Brisbane altogether and head straight for the Gold Coast. 

This regionalisation underscores an investment theme, signalling double benefit for Australia’s listed travel agents (Flight Centre (FLT), Corporate Travel (CTD) and Hello World (HLO). These travel agents help tourists make arrangements from their country of origin to Australia, then travel around the country. 

Last but certainly not least, a handful of Australia food, health and beauty brands have received the consumer goods sector’s version of a golden ticket – voracious demand in China sparked by Chinese travellers returning home with Australian products and spreading the word. 

Chinese concerns over food safety at home have given rise to unprecedented demand for Australia’s powdered baby formula, underpinning shares in Bellamy’s (BAL) and A2 Milk (A2M).

In addition, a perception among Chinese consumers of certain Australian brands delivering high quality and value for money has also created strong demand for Blackmores’ (BKL) vitamins and Sukin skincare, owned by BWX (BWX). The opening of free trade zones in China has allowed what was a suitcase trade to develop into vibrant online commerce, as well as bricks and mortar businesses.

Final thoughts

Australia’s record visitor numbers may point to airlines as a way of gaining investment exposure to the nation’s influx of arrivals but AMP Capital prefers non-airline beneficiaries of tourism. We prefer travel agents, as well as certain food and health brands embraced by visitors from China, transported back home and promoted by word of mouth. 

Enthusiastic Chinese visitors seeking out Australia’s reputation for safety and quality have turned their personal consumption into unprecedented demand for certain Australian brands of baby formula, vitamins and skincare. This demand, in addition to ongoing Australian consumption and exports elsewhere in the world, make these companies a less risky play on Australia’s tourism theme than airlines, in our view. 

Author: Maurizio Viani, Portfolio Manager

Source: AMP Capital 10 Jan 2017

1 Australian Bureau of Statistics, 3401.0 Overseas Arrivals and Departures, Australia June 2016 http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/Previousproducts/3401.0Feature%20Article1Jun%202016?opendocument&tabname=Summary&prodno=3401.0&issue=Jun%202016&num=&view=

Important note: While every care has been taken in the preparation of this document, AMP Capital Investors Limited (ABN 59 001 777 591, AFSL 232497) and AMP Capital Funds Management Limited (ABN 15 159 557 721, AFSL 426455) make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy or completeness of any statement in it including, without limitation, any forecasts. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This document has been prepared for the purpose of providing general information, without taking account of any particular investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. An investor should, before making any investment decisions, consider the appropriateness of the information in this document, and seek professional advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation and needs. This document is solely for the use of the party to whom it is provided.

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