Sub Heading

Market Watch

A key way to navigate markets

Posted On:Apr 11th, 2016     Posted In:Rss-feed-market    Posted By:Provision Wealth

During periods of low growth and volatility, relative exposure to different asset classes is more critical to investment returns than active security selection or choice of investment manager. In this article, we discuss the benefits and philosophy behind a dynamic asset allocation (DAA) investment strategy.

DAA is used to actively adjust the split of investments across asset classes in

Read More

During periods of low growth and volatility, relative exposure to different asset classes is more critical to investment returns than active security selection or choice of investment manager. In this article, we discuss the benefits and philosophy behind a dynamic asset allocation (DAA) investment strategy.

DAA is used to actively adjust the split of investments across asset classes in response to expected market changes. In doing so, it provides diversification benefits in a portfolio but it also provides the ability to adjust allocations to help enhance performance.

A DAA investment approach offers the following:

  • Targets real outcomes that generate long-term growth.

  • Enables investors to find opportunities that capitalise on the ebbs and flows of the market cycle.

  • Flexibility to shift investments in and out of asset classes to seek mispriced opportunities, free of the rigid constraints of static allocation portfolios.

Making the most of two investment fundamentals

Dynamic asset allocation helps investors make the most of two investment fundamentals: the power of compound interest and market cycles. Compound interest is simply the concept of earning interest on interest or, more broadly, getting a return on past returns. In other words, any interest of return earned in one period is added to the original investment so that it all earns interest or a return in the next period.

Markets are cyclical and volatility can last as long as a decade before subsiding. Cycles encompass normal business cycles that result in three to five year cyclical swings in share markets. They can throw investors off a well thought out investment strategy that aims to take advantage of long-term returns and they can cause problems for investors when they are in or close to retirement.

Rather than stick to their strategy of investing in higher return assets over the long term, investors can be spooked by volatility, as we have seen recently, and reallocate to ‘safer’ asset classes such as cash, thereby missing out on the long-term benefits of compound interest. To reap maximum benefits from compound interest, investors need to ensure they have an adequate exposure to growth assets, that they contribute early and often to their investment portfolio and find a way to avoid being thrown off by investment cycles.

There are essentially three ways to manage cycles:

  1. Ignore them

    Adopt a ‘set and forget’ approach to asset allocation – this may be suitable for long-term investors but not for those who are older or have a short-term focus.

  2. Forecast them

    Do this using economic forecasts – but this is difficult as the track record of economists’ point forecasts shows.

  3. Use rhyming elements to manage them

    While investment cycles don’t repeat precisely, they do rhyme. Each cycle has common elements, e.g. downswings in equities are usually preceded by overvaluation, tight monetary conditions and investor euphoria. These rhyming elements can be captured and combined to provide warnings of swings in the cycles and hence are a solid foundation for an active asset allocation process – this is the dynamic asset allocation approach.

    In the absence of rigid growth and defensive constraints, DAA can drive investment across a range of asset classes to exploit periodic mispricing between asset classes through the market cycle. These pricing disparities are common and it is within this inefficiency that real investment value lies, where the ebbs and flows of the market cycle present significant opportunities to generate performance returns.

Five things to keep in mind when making investment strategy decisions

  1. Invest for the long term, ignore the short-term noise

    This is the best way to benefit from compound interest. Investors can develop a long-term plan to suit an investor’s level of wealth, risk criterion, tolerance to volatility and age. It’s important not to get distracted by short-term volatility or trends.

  2. Compound interest is an investor’s best friend

    The higher the return, the greater the investment contribution and the longer the time period, the more compound interest works. To reap maximum advantage, ensure there is an adequate exposure to growth assets, contribute early and often to the investment portfolio and find a way to avoid being thrown off by the investment cycle.

  3. Diversify

    The golden rule of investing – don’t put all your eggs in one basket. Investors are best placed to spread their investments across a mix of asset classes that best suit their long-term investment strategy and goals.

  4. Focus on investments offering sustainable cash flow

    Don’t’ be misled by promises of high returns and low risk. If it is hard to understand or looks too good to be true then it’s best to stay away.

  5. Asset allocation is paramount

    It’s easy to worry about an individual share investment or whether the fund manager is picking the right shares but the reality is, the key drivers of returns are the assets (shares, bonds, cash, property, infrastructure, listed/unlisted, onshore/offshore, hedged/unhedged) that an investor is exposed to. Managers using active asset allocation should stick to an investor’s long-term strategy while adjusting medium-term allocations to make the most of market opportunities.

Final thoughts

A DAA approach can be used to dynamically re-balance a portfolio away from asset classes where lower performance and higher risks are expected, and towards those tending to stronger performance or lower risks. This flexibility, along with the risk management capabilities of this approach, may make it attractive to investors in the accumulation phase who are looking for growth and to those who are nearing retirement and have the ability to withstand the potential for short-term volatility.

Source: AMP Capital

About the Author

Nader Naeimi
Head of Dynamic Markets

Nader Naeimi has more than 19 years of experience in Australia’s financial markets, including 16 years at AMP Capital. As the Head of Dynamic Markets, he is responsible for leading the Dynamic Asset Allocation strategy for the Multi-Asset Group, as well as other macro strategies and asset allocations for several AMP Capital funds.

Important note: While every care has been taken in the preparation of this article, AMP Capital Investors Limited (ABN 59 001 777 591, AFSL 232497) and AMP Capital Funds Management Limited (ABN 15 159 557 721, AFSL 426455) makes no representations or warranties as to the accuracy or completeness of any statement in it including, without limitation, any forecasts. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This article has been prepared for the purpose of providing general information, without taking account of any particular investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. An investor should, before making any investment decisions, consider the appropriateness of the information in this article, and seek professional advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation and needs. This article is solely for the use of the party to whom it is provided.

Read Less

Chase for yield pushes property returns higher

Posted On:Mar 15th, 2016     Posted In:Rss-feed-market    Posted By:Provision Wealth

Commercial real estate is a popular choice among Australian and foreign investors given the current low interest rate environment. At a time when the value of global bond yields is low, defensive investors are searching elsewhere for yield and property is an attractive option; particularly those assets that have provided an income guarantee.

Due to the high value of sales that

Read More

Commercial real estate is a popular choice among Australian and foreign investors given the current low interest rate environment. At a time when the value of global bond yields is low, defensive investors are searching elsewhere for yield and property is an attractive option; particularly those assets that have provided an income guarantee.

Due to the high value of sales that have transacted over the past 12 months, property yields – i.e. the rate of return based on the expected income of the property – are compressing and some sub-markets have matched or exceeded their 2007 peaks, as shown in the below graph.

Yield compression over the past decade

Source: JLL Research/AMP Capital (forecasts)

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance

The resulting high property prices indicates that investors view commercial real estate as a low-risk, high-return investment, for which they are willing to purchase without the promise of immediate return, given the longer term income potential.

How much further will yields fall?

Yields are expected to fall further in 2016, with overall sector averages matching the 2007 peak. Popular assets/markets such as trophy assets, assets in markets with improving rental growth prospects and those with secure high yield are likely to see rates fall even below their 2007 peaks, as we have seen happen in many overseas markets.

In our view, the chase for yield will continue until interest rates start rising, global economic growth starts gaining steady momentum and the volatility in share markets subsides. At this stage, this proposition is looking likely to occur onwards of 2017.

We also expect approximately another 12-18 months of yield chase for the following reasons:

  • Australia’s short-term economic growth outlook is tepid– the growth environment will remain sluggish, with AMP Capital and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) forecasting Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth of only 2-2.5% p.a. in the short-term.

  • Real estate prices are attractive compared to alternative asset classes– the spread in yields to bonds is close to a historically wide range. Real estate income yields and prices are less volatile than some other asset classes, favoured by many investors in the current world of excessive volatility and low growth.

  • Interest rate falls– long and shorter-term interest rates could fall further in the next six months if Australian or Chinese economic growth deteriorates. Core inflation is running towards the bottom end of the RBA’s 2-3% target range giving it room to decrease interest rates further to protect the economy.

  • Australia’s higher running yields and falling dollar attracts foreign investors– this is despite concerns about the end of the mining boom and an overheated housing market in Sydney and Melbourne.

  • Real estate debt is highly accretive to property income yield– this means there is a chance the leveraged buyer will return, setting new price benchmarks.

What does the chase for yield and rising prices mean for property investment?

The movement in yields to date has propelled the total return for the Australian commercial real estate market upwards into double digits and we expect this to continue until yields bottom. Over the next three years, we expect prime returns to average 9.5-10% p.a. across the sectors, with greater prospects for yield compression and improving rental growth forecasts in sectors such as the non-resource state office markets and the high growth regional and sub-regional shopping centres.

While there is still some yield compression left in the market, property values are now sitting up around the 10-11 o’clock position on the cycle. This is a less attractive entry point for buying into real estate unless assets have strong rental growth prospects or some form of repositioning to alternative uses.

The dynamics of the global economic environment and consequent challenges mean uncertain times for commercial real estate and for all sectors. In the short term, the chase for yield is a positive trend but is pushing prices ahead of rental growth, which could cause a risk for low rental growth assets when interest rates rise. On balance, our quantitative models are confirming our observations that the market is well along in the cycle and now is the time to capitalise on the weight of money, and position funds and assets for the volatility and structural headwinds in the medium term.

Source: AMP Capital

About the Author

Michael Kingcott, Head of Property Investment Strategy and Research, AMP Capital

Michael is the Manager of the Property Investment Strategy and Research Team, responsible for leading a team of property investment analysts who monitor and forecast the domestic and international property markets.

Important note: While every care has been taken in the preparation of this article, AMP Capital Investors Limited (ABN 59 001 777 591, AFSL 232497) and AMP Capital Funds Management Limited (ABN 15 159 557 721, AFSL 426455) makes no representations or warranties as to the accuracy or completeness of any statement in it including, without limitation, any forecasts. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This article has been prepared for the purpose of providing general information, without taking account of any particular investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. An investor should, before making any investment decisions, consider the appropriateness of the information in this article, and seek professional advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation and needs. This article is solely for the use of the party to whom it is provided.

Read Less

March 2016 – the Reserve Bank leaves interest rates unchanged at 2 per cent

Posted On:Mar 01st, 2016     Posted In:Rss-feed-market    Posted By:Provision Wealth

At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 2.0 per cent.

Recent information suggests that the global economy is continuing to grow, though at a slightly lower pace than earlier expected. While several advanced economies have recorded improved growth over the past year, conditions have become more difficult for a number of

Read More

At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 2.0 per cent.

Recent information suggests that the global economy is continuing to grow, though at a slightly lower pace than earlier expected. While several advanced economies have recorded improved growth over the past year, conditions have become more difficult for a number of emerging market economies. China’s growth rate has continued to moderate.

Commodity prices have declined very substantially over the past couple of years. This partly reflects slower growth in demand but also, in some key instances, large increases in supply. The decline in Australia’s terms of trade has continued.

Financial markets have once again exhibited heightened volatility over recent months, as participants grapple with uncertainty about the global economic outlook and policy settings among the major jurisdictions. Appetite for risk has diminished somewhat and funding conditions for emerging market sovereigns and lesser-rated corporates have tightened. But funding costs for high-quality borrowers remain very low and, globally, monetary policy remains remarkably accommodative.

In Australia, the available information suggests that the expansion in the non-mining parts of the economy strengthened during 2015 despite the contraction in spending in mining investment. This was reflected in improved labour market conditions. The pace of lending to businesses also picked up.

Inflation is quite low. With growth in labour costs continuing to be quite subdued as well, and inflation restrained elsewhere in the world, inflation is likely to remain low over the next year or two.

Given these conditions, it is appropriate for monetary policy to be accommodative. Low interest rates are supporting demand, while supervisory measures are working to emphasise prudent lending standards and so to contain risks in the housing market. Credit growth to households continues at a moderate pace, albeit with a changed composition between investors and owner-occupiers. The pace of growth in dwelling prices has moderated in Melbourne and Sydney and has remained mostly subdued in other cities. The exchange rate has been adjusting to the evolving economic outlook.

At today’s meeting, the Board judged that there were reasonable prospects for continued growth in the economy, with inflation close to target. The Board therefore decided that the current setting of monetary policy remained appropriate.

Over the period ahead, new information should allow the Board to judge whether the improvement in labour market conditions is continuing and whether the recent financial turbulence portends weaker global and domestic demand. Continued low inflation would provide scope for easier policy, should that be appropriate to lend support to demand.

Enquiries

Media and Communications
Information Department
Reserve Bank of Australia
SYDNEY

Phone: +61 2 9551 9720
Fax: +61 2 9551 8033
E-mail: rbainfo@rba.gov.au

Read Less

Achieving a stable income flow in a low interest rate world

Posted On:Feb 22nd, 2016     Posted In:Rss-feed-market    Posted By:Provision Wealth

An investment environment of constrained economic growth and high volatility means that interest rates are likely to remain lower for longer – with central banks globally cutting interest rates or leaving them on hold at low levels. Low interest rates bring to the spotlight the potential to gain yield from investments, rather than just focussing on the potential for capital

Read More

An investment environment of constrained economic growth and high volatility means that interest rates are likely to remain lower for longer – with central banks globally cutting interest rates or leaving them on hold at low levels. Low interest rates bring to the spotlight the potential to gain yield from investments, rather than just focussing on the potential for capital growth, as even when the capital value of an investment is low it can provide stable cash flow – this is comforting to investors during periods of market declines.

Low interest rate environment is set to continue

With interest rates set to remain low or fall further, bank deposit rates – already at their lowest in Australia since the 1950s – are likely to also remain low or go lower. Our view is that further falls are likely as the RBA is set to cut official interest rates to 1.75% in the next few months on the back of global uncertainties, sub-par growth and benign inflation. This in turn means an ongoing need to understand and consider alternative sources of yield on offer.

Source: Reserve Bank of Australia, AMP Capital

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance

How does yield prove its worth in a low interest rate environment?

A high and sustainable starting point yield for an investment provides some security during volatile times like the present:

  • Since 1900 dividends have provided more than half of the 11.6% total return from Australian shares and their contribution has been stable in contrast to the short swings in the capital value of shares.

  • Dividends are relatively smooth over time. Companies hate having to cut them as they know it annoys shareholders so they prefer to keep them sustainable.

  • As baby boomers retire, investor demand for income will likely be high as the focus shifts to income generation.

The chart below shows the yield on a range of Australian investments. Yields on global investments tend to be lower.

Source: Bloomberg, AMP Capital

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance

All of these yields have fallen over the last few years as interest rates have fallen however, several of the alternatives still offer much higher yields than term deposits.

Other asset classes that offer attractive yields

  • Corporate debt offers higher yields than term deposits– these yields are offered without the volatility of shares. Investment grade yields for Australian corporates are around 6.5% or less and lower quality corporate yields are higher.

  • Australian real estate investment trusts (A-REITs) are reasonable at 4.8%– following the turmoil of the global financial crisis (GFC) A-REITs have refocussed on their core business of managing buildings, collecting rents and passing it on to their investors, with lower gearing.

  • Unlisted infrastructure offers yields of around 5%– this is underpinned by investments such as toll roads and utilities, where demand is relatively stable.

What are the risks for investors?

While there is a strong case for investors to focus on investments that offer decent yield, as with any investment there are risks associated with the volatility in the value of the underlying investment. The alternative investments listed above are considered to be more risky than term deposits.

In the case of shares, the key for an investor is to work out whether they prefer stable value for their investment –in which case bank deposits are a sensible option – or a higher, more stable income flow, whereby Australian shares are more appropriate.

In any case, in the search for higher yield investors need to remain alert to opportunities while being aware of how particular shares or assets have performed in the past in relation to dividends. Focusing on opportunities that have a track record of delivering reliable earnings and distribution growth is they key here.

Source: AMP Capital

About the Author

Shane Oliver
Dr Shane Oliver has extensive experience analysing economic and investment cycles and how current positioning affects the return potential for asset classes such as shares, bonds, property and infrastructure. Shane is a regular media commentator, providing economic forecasts and analysis of key variables and issues that affect all asset markets.

Important note: While every care has been taken in the preparation of this article, AMP Capital Investors Limited (ABN 59 001 777 591, AFSL 232497) and AMP Capital Funds Management Limited (ABN 15 159 557 721, AFSL 426455) makes no representations or warranties as to the accuracy or completeness of any statement in it including, without limitation, any forecasts. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This article has been prepared for the purpose of providing general information, without taking account of any particular investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. An investor should, before making any investment decisions, consider the appropriateness of the information in this article, and seek professional advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation and needs. This article is solely for the use of the party to whom it is provided.

Read Less

February 2016 – the Reserve Bank leaves interest rates unchanged at 2 per cent

Posted On:Feb 02nd, 2016     Posted In:Rss-feed-market    Posted By:Provision Wealth

At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 2.0 per cent.

Recent information suggests the global economy is continuing to grow, though at a slightly lower pace than earlier expected. While several advanced economies have recorded improved growth over the past year, conditions have become more difficult for a number of emerging

Read More

At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 2.0 per cent.

Recent information suggests the global economy is continuing to grow, though at a slightly lower pace than earlier expected. While several advanced economies have recorded improved growth over the past year, conditions have become more difficult for a number of emerging market economies. China’s growth rate has continued to moderate.

Commodity prices have declined further, especially oil prices. This partly reflects slower growth in demand but also very substantial increases in supply over recent years. The decline in Australia’s terms of trade, which began more than four years ago, has therefore continued.

Financial markets have once again exhibited heightened volatility recently, as participants grapple with uncertainty about the global economic outlook and diverging policy settings among the major jurisdictions. Appetite for risk has diminished somewhat and funding conditions for emerging market sovereigns and lesser-rated corporates have tightened. But funding costs for high-quality borrowers remain very low and, globally, monetary policy remains remarkably accommodative.

In Australia, the available information suggests that the expansion in the non-mining parts of the economy strengthened during 2015 even as the contraction in spending in mining investment continued. Surveys of business conditions moved to above average levels, employment growth picked up and the unemployment rate declined in the second half of the year, even though measured GDP growth was below average. The pace of lending to businesses also picked up.

Inflation continues to be quite low, with the CPI rising by 1.7 per cent over 2015. This was partly caused by declining prices for oil and some utilities, but underlying measures of inflation are also low at about 2 per cent. With growth in labour costs continuing to be quite subdued as well, and inflation restrained elsewhere in the world, consumer price inflation is likely to remain low over the next year or two.

Given these conditions, it is appropriate for monetary policy to be accommodative. Low interest rates are supporting demand, while regulatory measures are working to emphasise prudent lending standards and so to contain risks in the housing market. Credit growth to households continues at a moderate pace, albeit with a changed composition between investors and owner-occupiers. The pace of growth in dwelling prices has moderated in Melbourne and Sydney over recent months and has remained mostly subdued in other cities. The exchange rate has continued its adjustment to the evolving economic outlook.

At today’s meeting, the Board judged that there were reasonable prospects for continued growth in the economy, with inflation close to target. The Board therefore decided that the current setting of monetary policy remained appropriate.

Over the period ahead, new information should allow the Board to judge whether the recent improvement in labour market conditions is continuing and whether the recent financial turbulence portends weaker global and domestic demand. Continued low inflation may provide scope for easier policy, should that be appropriate to lend support to demand.

Enquiries:

Media Office
Information Department
Reserve Bank of Australia
SYDNEY
Phone: +61 2 9551 9720
Fax: +61 2 9551 8033
E-mail: rbainfo@rba.gov.au

Read Less

The Chinese consumer shift to experiences over ‘things’

Posted On:Jan 29th, 2016     Posted In:Rss-feed-market    Posted By:Provision Wealth

A shift is taking place within the Chinese consumer market – and developed markets more broadly – to spend money on experiences rather than on traditional material products. For the Australian market, this means a boost to tourism from Chinese nationals and to the education and housing sectors from Chinese immigrants.

An evolving trend within developed markets is the consumer preference

Read More

A shift is taking place within the Chinese consumer market – and developed markets more broadly – to spend money on experiences rather than on traditional material products. For the Australian market, this means a boost to tourism from Chinese nationals and to the education and housing sectors from Chinese immigrants.

An evolving trend within developed markets is the consumer preference to spend on experiences – aligned to lifestyle and values – which is overwhelming the consumer desire to spend on products and brands.

The below chart shows the substantial increase in activity-based expenditure, and an example of the trend to spend less on traditional goods like cars and apparel.

Consumer spending on experiences exceeds spending on ‘things’

 

Source: Sanford Bernstein, Bloomberg, CLSA

Trend extends to the rest of the globe

Following a recent visit to the US, we reported back on the phenomenon that American consumers are spending more on experiences than on ‘things’. From 2000-2011, revenue growth in consumer companies that sold ‘things’ – such as physical products like clothes and household goods – was almost exactly the same as revenue growth in consumer companies that sold experiences like travel and dining out. Both were around 8.7% and 8.8% respectively. However, after 2011 something interesting happened – the ‘experience’ basket started growing at twice the rate of the ‘things’ basket.

Shift in spending trends is a global phenomenon

Source: Evercore ISI

Why the shift in consumer behaviour?

This shift in behaviour most likely reflects the transition to millennials (15-35 year-olds) as they become the dominant source of incremental consumer spending; and as baby boomers retire and are therefore more likely to travel and dine out.

Despite their low income average, China’s millennials desire international brands, lifestyle and health and wellness products; and they are willing to undertake material search costs to maximise their disposable incomes. This has contributed to strong growth of online retail within this cohort.

Social media has also facilitated the rise of ‘conspicuous leisure’, with platforms such as Facebook, Instagram and Snapchat inspiring the observation and creation of lifestyle image posts that highlight an active and adventurous lifestyle as a global citizen.

Flow-on effect

China is currently Australia’s most important nationality by spend – more than double that of the UK which is in second place. Tourism Australia forecasts the potential for this segment to be worth up to $13 billion by the year 2020, and Chinese tourism is likely to be a dominant theme for years to come. Goldman Sachs estimates that passport ownership in China is 4%, which is comparably much lower than 25% in Japan and 35% in the US. However, this number is expected to increase to 12% by 2025. Two thirds of current outbound travellers are millennials and it is expected that the 74 million Chinese college students graduating over the next decade will boost to passport ownership.

According to independent brokerage and investment group CLSA, approximately 15% of China’s 350 million-strong middle class population wish to emigrate, with Australia being the second most preferred destination. Australia may see a spike in Chinese immigration during the next five to ten years, which demonstrates the likely increasing demand for education and housing in the country.

The future of Chinese consumption

Australia’s tourism, education and property sectors will continue to benefit from Chinese expenditure, a trend that we expect will last for decades to come.

The continual shift in spending from baby boomers to millennials will only progress with time, as will the relentless rise of social media, thus cultivating the trend for consumer spending on non-material expenses and changing the landscape for investors globally.

AMP Capital 27 January 2016

By Andy Gardner

Andy joined AMP Capital in February 2012 as a Portfolio Manager/Analyst within the Fundamental Equities team and has more than 12 years’ experience in Europe and Asia Pacific as a senior buy and sell side equity analyst and strategist. Andy holds a Bachelor of Science in Economics (first class honours) from Kings College London, and is a CFA charterholder.

Important note: While every care has been taken in the preparation of this article, AMP Capital Investors Limited (ABN 59 001 777 591, AFSL 232497) and AMP Capital Funds Management Limited (ABN 15 159 557 721, AFSL 426455) makes no representations or warranties as to the accuracy or completeness of any statement in it including, without limitation, any forecasts. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This article has been prepared for the purpose of providing general information, without taking account of any particular investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. An investor should, before making any investment decisions, consider the appropriateness of the information in this article, and seek professional advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation and needs. This article is solely for the use of the party to whom it is provided.

Read Less
Client stories Hand Shake Image

Client Stories

Hear from some of our customers who have broken out of debt and secured their future financially.

Read More >>
Our Team Image

Calculators

Calculate how to break out of debt, save for retirement, how much you can borrow, compound interest, savings and more.

Read More >>

Provision Insights

Subscribe to our Quarterly e-newsletter and receive information, news and tips to help you secure your harvest.

Newsletter Powered By : XYZScripts.com