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Video Commentary

Fed tightening: 3 things for investors to remember

Posted On:Jun 12th, 2015     Posted In:Rss-feed-video    Posted By:Provision Wealth

This year, what happens in the US is critically important to what happens in the global economy because of the intense focus on the Federal Reserve (Fed). We’ve had near-zero interest rates since the onset of the global financial crisis, and the Fed has indicated that at some point, probably this year, it will start to raise rates.

In this video,

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This year, what happens in the US is critically important to what happens in the global economy because of the intense focus on the Federal Reserve (Fed). We’ve had near-zero interest rates since the onset of the global financial crisis, and the Fed has indicated that at some point, probably this year, it will start to raise rates.

In this video, Shane Oliver, Chief Economist and Head of Investment Strategy at AMP Capital, provides an update on the US economy.

 

A couple of critically important points for investors to remember

  • When the Fed does start to raise rates, it will only be because the US economy is coming out of the danger zone that it’s been in since the global financial crisis. As the US economy gets back on track, the Fed can start to take more of the medicine away;

  • Any tightening in monetary policy will be a very gradual process. There is no need to be aggressive in an environment where inflationary pressures are very low;

  • Historically, there has typically been a bit of volatility and corrective activity in share markets around the time of tightening. Once the market starts to get used to the fact that the Fed is only tightening because of stronger growth, the bull market in shares should resume.

Final thoughts

Our base case is that the US Federal Reserve will raise interest rates later this year, probably around September. When they do start to raise interest rates, the key is that it will be a very gradual process.

 

About the Author

Dr Shane Oliver, Head of Investment Strategy and Economics and Chief Economist at AMP Capital is responsible for AMP Capital’s diversified investment funds. He also provides economic forecasts and analysis of key variables and issues affecting, or likely to affect, all asset markets.

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What does the budget mean for investors?

Posted On:May 31st, 2015     Posted In:Rss-feed-video    Posted By:Provision Wealth

Dr. Shane Oliver – Head of Investment Strategy & Chief Economist

 

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Dr. Shane Oliver – Head of Investment Strategy & Chief Economist

 

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Australia: Are we likely to see any changes in tax?

Posted On:May 31st, 2015     Posted In:Rss-feed-video    Posted By:Provision Wealth

There’s been a lot of debate about tax concessions and this followed from the tax discussion paper, released by the Federal Government a month or so ago. There seems to be four areas of focus: 

Negative gearing

Franking credits

Capital gains tax discount

Tax concessions regarding superannuation

In this video, AMP Capital’s Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, Shane Oliver suggests that

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There’s been a lot of debate about tax concessions and this followed from the tax discussion paper, released by the Federal Government a month or so ago. There seems to be four areas of focus: 

  • Negative gearing

  • Franking credits

  • Capital gains tax discount

  • Tax concessions regarding superannuation

In this video, AMP Capital’s Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, Shane Oliver suggests that the areas that may see some change over time include the capital gains discount and superannuation, particularly for those with high balances or incomes.

This video must be taken in its entirely and any given chapter viewed in isolation does not represent the entire message.

About the Author

Dr Shane Oliver, Head of Investment Strategy and Economics and Chief Economist at AMP Capital is responsible for AMP Capital’s diversified investment funds. He also provides economic forecasts and analysis of key variables and issues affecting, or likely to affect, all asset markets.

Important note: While every care has been taken in the preparation of this article, AMP Capital Investors Limited (ABN 59 001 777 591, AFSL 232497) and AMP Capital Funds Management Limited (ABN 15 159 557 721, AFSL 426455) makes no representations or warranties as to the accuracy or completeness of any statement in it including, without limitation, any forecasts. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This article has been prepared for the purpose of providing general information, without taking account of any particular investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. An investor should, before making any investment decisions, consider the appropriateness of the information in this article, and seek professional advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation and needs. This article is solely for the use of the party to whom it is provided.

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The end of US quantitative easing

Posted On:Oct 31st, 2014     Posted In:Rss-feed-video    Posted By:Provision Wealth

Key points:

After phasing down its quantitative easing (QE) program all year the US Fed has finally ended it. Monetary tightening still looks unlikely until mid-next year at the earliest and is contingent on further improvement in the economy and higher inflation.

QE has worked – the US economy is now well into expansion mode and looking a lot stronger

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Key points:

  • After phasing down its quantitative easing (QE) program all year the US Fed has finally ended it. Monetary tightening still looks unlikely until mid-next year at the earliest and is contingent on further improvement in the economy and higher inflation.

  • QE has worked – the US economy is now well into expansion mode and looking a lot stronger than Europe and Japan that have taken longer to adopt it.

  • While the ending of QE could contribute more volatility to shares it has largely been anticipated. With the US likely to continue growing & monetary conditions expected to remain easy for some time to come the cyclical bull market in shares likely has further to go.

  • The ending of US QE is also positive for Australia as it is a sign that the world’s biggest economy is better and removes a source of upwards pressure on the $A.

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Investment outlook after another solid financial year

Posted On:Jul 24th, 2014     Posted In:Rss-feed-video    Posted By:Provision Wealth

Key points with Shane Oliver, Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist:

The past financial year saw solid to strong returns from most asset classes drive good returns from balanced and growth oriented investment strategies, including from super funds.

Investors should expect returns to slow over the year ahead, but they are likely to remain solid as share valuations are

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Key points with Shane Oliver, Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist:

  • The past financial year saw solid to strong returns from most asset classes drive good returns from balanced and growth oriented investment strategies, including from super funds.

  • Investors should expect returns to slow over the year ahead, but they are likely to remain solid as share valuations are still reasonable, the global economy continues to grow, the Australian growth outlook improves and monetary conditions remain easy.

Chapters in this video:

  • What's been happening in markets? (00:00)

  • What's the outlook for the economy? (00:52)

  • Final thoughts (01:52)

This video must be taken in its entirely and any given chapter viewed in isolation does not represent the entire message.
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Investment outlook after another solid financial year

Posted On:Jul 24th, 2014     Posted In:Rss-feed-video    Posted By:Provision Wealth

Key points with Shane Oliver, Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist:

The past financial year saw solid to strong returns from most asset classes drive good returns from balanced and growth oriented investment strategies, including from super funds.

Investors should expect returns to slow over the year ahead, but they are likely to remain solid as share valuations are

Read More

Key points with Shane Oliver, Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist:

  • The past financial year saw solid to strong returns from most asset classes drive good returns from balanced and growth oriented investment strategies, including from super funds.

  • Investors should expect returns to slow over the year ahead, but they are likely to remain solid as share valuations are still reasonable, the global economy continues to grow, the Australian growth outlook improves and monetary conditions remain easy.

Chapters in this video:

  • What's been happening in markets? (00:00)

  • What's the outlook for the economy? (00:52)

  • Final thoughts (01:52)

This video must be taken in its entirely and any given chapter viewed in isolation does not represent the entire message.
Read Less
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