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Author: Provision Wealth

The US presidential election – implications for investors

Date: Jul 01st, 2020

Investor focus on the US election waned earlier this year after socialist Bernie Sanders dropped out of the Democratic primary race in favour of moderate Joe Biden. At the same time coronavirus became the main focus for markets. However, markets may soon start to pay more attention as the election is rapidly approaching, while Joe Biden is a moderate, he is proposing higher taxes and more regulation and President Trump is not having a good run. Trump’s re-election chances have fallen with a majority of surveyed Americans disapproving of his handling of the pandemic and recent civil unrest at a time when the US has plunged into its deepest recession since the 1930s. The historical record indicates incumbent presidents tend to lose when there is a recession in the two years before the election and unemployment has gone up.


Source: Strategas

Normally at this point past presidents seeking re-election have started to see an upswing in approval, but this is not evident yet for Trump. Rather, consistent with the above, according to Real Clear Politics’ average of polls Trump’s approval rating has fallen to 41.2% over the last two months, his disapproval rating is edging above its 2019 high, opinion polls have Biden leading Trump by around 9 points and Biden is ahead in all 6 “battleground states”, the ‘Predict It’ betting market, which had Trump ahead of Biden up until late May, now has Biden with a 23 point lead and also now has Democrats winning the presidency, the House and the Senate. The Democrats already have control of the House and are likely to retain that, but they need three seats to then along with the Vice President, gain a majority of the Senate. A clean sweep for the Democrats would remove the Senate as a blockage to higher taxes.


Source: Real Clear Politics

However, it would be wrong to write Trump off. Polls and betting markets were not so reliable in the 2016 election, there are still four months to go to the election & ongoing civil unrest could see him garner support as a “law and order president” as Nixon did in 1968. And Trump rates more highly on the economy than Biden and this may get a boost if the economy continues to reopen and recover. A rebound in the economy is Trump’s best hope which partly explains why he cheered on reopening from the end of April. However, the rebound in US coronavirus cases in many states in the last few weeks puts all this at risk.

Key Biden policy directions versus Trump

Taxation: Biden plans to raise the corporate tax rate to 28% (reversing half of Trump’s cut to 21%), return the top marginal tax rate to 39.6% (from 37%) and tax capital gains and dividends as ordinary income.

Infrastructure: Biden plans to spend $1.3trn over 10 years.

Climate policy: Biden aims for the US to reach net zero emissions by 2050 by raising the cost of fossil fuels & boosting the development of alternatives (possibly with a carbon tax).

Regulation: Biden is likely to end the era of deregulation.

Healthcare: Biden wants to strengthen Obamacare and limit drug prices.

Trade and foreign policy: Biden would likely de-escalate tensions with Europe and strengthen the alliance, work with international organisations like the World Trade Organisation, work to re-establish the nuclear deal with Iran and adopt a more diplomatic approach to dealing with trade & other issues with China (working with Europe and Asian allies in the process). By contrast a re-elected Trump is likely to double down on his trade war with China and possibly elsewhere including Europe.

Budget deficit: For the near term, the budget deficit is likely to remain high whoever wins, but historically they have fallen under Democrats after rising under Republicans. That said, if the economy proves slow to recover Joe Biden may be more likely to respond with large public sector spending programs aided by ongoing Fed quantitative easing in order to deal with ongoing high levels of spare capacity and unemployment.

Economic impact

On their own higher corporate and top marginal tax rates, increased regulation and an increased cost of carbon which will weigh on energy companies when they are already struggling are negative for the growth outlook. For example, the rise in the corporate tax rate would knock around 6% off earnings per share for S&P 500 companies. In particular, they may reverse some of the supply side boost provided by Trump. However, as with all things economic its never as simple as that.

  • First, the negative impact of tax hikes and increased regulation in the short term could be more than offset by increased infrastructure spending (particularly if some of the revenue comes from those with high saving rates). 

  • Second once in office Biden may dampen down his planned tax hikes, particularly if the economy is still weak as is likely. 

  • Third, raising taxes on top earners while a negative for incentive may help reduce inequality which has been a key driver of the populist backlash of recent years and has arguably been made worse by Trump. 

  • Fourth, Biden’s trade and foreign policy focussed more on strengthening ties with Europe and a diplomatic approach to dealing with China may substantially reduce a source of angst and uncertainty under Trump (which is likely to intensify if he is re-elected). 

  • Finally, more stable and predictable policy making reliant on expert advice under Biden may provide a more certain environment for business and so result in increased business investment despite a rise in the corporate tax rate. Don’t forget that the uncertainty caused by Trump’s trade wars offset the boost to investment from his tax cuts.

So, on balance I see no reason to expect a weaker economic and share market outlook under a Biden presidency.

Likely market reaction

Firstly, despite the heightened policy uncertainty the election year is normally an okay year for US shares.


Source: Bloomberg, AMP Capital

Since 1927, the election year, or year 4 in the presidential cycle, has had an average total return of 11.2% pa, which is only just below the average return for all years. Of course, this year is complicated by the coronavirus hit to growth and so may well be weak regardless of the election.

Second, the run up to the election could see increased share market volatility if Trump’s prospects look bleak for two reasons: investors may start to fret about the prospects of increased taxes and regulation under a Biden presidency, particularly if it looks like Democrats will win control of the Senate; and Trump may reason that he will have nothing to lose by seriously ramping up tensions with China (and maybe Europe) in a way that threatens the economic outlook, but with the prospect of shoring up his base and rallying Americans around the flag. However, while there may be short term jitters ahead of the election, for the reasons noted in the last section, there is no reason to expect a weaker economy and hence share market under a Biden presidency. Investors may ultimately welcome more reasoned and predictable policy making.

Third, historically US shares have done best under Democrat presidents with an average return of 14.6% pa since 1927 compared to an average return under Republican presidents of 9.8% pa. This has been evident in recent years with good average annual returns under President’s Obama (14.8% pa) and Clinton (19.1% pa) versus terrible returns under President G W Bush (-0.6% pa) but strong returns under President Trump’s first three years (16.3% pa).

However, the best average result has actually occurred when there has been a Democrat president and Republican control of the House, the Senate or both. This has seen an average return of 16.4% pa. By contrast the return has only averaged 8.9% pa when the Republicans controlled the presidency and Congress.


Source: Bloomberg, AMP Capital

Concluding comment

The run up to the US election has the potential to drive increased share market volatility if it looks increasingly likely that Biden will win and raise taxes and regulation and the risk is probably greater if President Trump decides he has nothing to lose and so ramps up tensions with China and maybe Europe. This would weigh on global and Australian shares and the Australian dollar given Australia’s exposure to China. However, this is likely to be short lived as there is no reason to expect a weaker economy and hence share market under a Biden presidency and he is likely to take a less disruptive approach to trade and foreign policy issues.

 

Source: AMP Capital 30 June 2020

Important notes: While every care has been taken in the preparation of this article, AMP Capital Investors Limited (ABN 59 001 777 591, AFSL 232497) and AMP Capital Funds Management Limited (ABN 15 159 557 721, AFSL 426455) (AMP Capital) makes no representations or warranties as to the accuracy or completeness of any statement in it including, without limitation, any forecasts. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This article has been prepared for the purpose of providing general information, without taking account of any particular investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. An investor should, before making any investment decisions, consider the appropriateness of the information in this article, and seek professional advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation and needs. This article is solely for the use of the party to whom it is provided and must not be provided to any other person or entity without the express written consent of AMP Capital.

How worried should investors be about a “second wave” of Coronavirus cases?

Date: Jun 17th, 2020

The past week has seen a flurry of concerns about a “second wave” of coronavirus cases. It started when US infectious disease expert Anthony Fauci warned the coronavirus outbreak is not over and media started to focus on more than 20 US states seeing a rising trend in new cases, and then over the weekend, China reported a cluster of cases in Beijing around a market. Mass anti-racist protests have probably added to the renewed unease. (While there is no place whatsoever for racism, unfortunately in the current environment, large protests that gather people together increase the risk of the virus spreading). And even in Australia we have seen new clusters – mainly in Victoria – although the daily number of new cases remains around or below 20, so it’s not a major issue in Australia. See next chart.


Source: Worldometer, AMP Capital

These second wave concerns have come at a time when share markets had become vulnerable to a pullback after huge rallies since the coronavirus panic low around 23rd March which had seen US shares gain 44% and Australian shares rise 35%. We discussed this last week in Shares climb a “wall of worry”. And so, shares have seen a 6 to 7% correction in the last week before recovering some of that decline in the last few days.

After major bear market lows associated with recessions its common for shares to surge higher, get very overbought, and then see a pullback on concerns about a “double dip” back into recession. The pullback then sees shares shake off some excesses which then allows the rising trend to resume. Second wave virus concerns and fears it may result in a renewed lockdown and double dip in economies looks to have triggered the pullback over the last week. But the question is whether it’s just a correction in a rising trend or will it turn into another big leg down in shares? A key determinant could be how serious any second wave is. This note looks briefly at the main issues.

But first, where are we with coronavirus globally?

While worries about coronavirus perked up over the last week, there has been little change to the broad trends in terms of coronavirus cases. New cases continue to trace out an uptrend globally, driven by emerging countries, but new cases in developed countries are well below their early April highs (and this played a big role in the rally in share markets since March).


Source: ourworldindata.org, AMP Capital

What about a second wave in the US?

The US is at greater risk than most other developed countries of a second wave because reopening started before a sharp downtrend in new cases had really taken hold and many US states moved ahead of the US Government’s own medical guidelines to reopening. Around 23 states are seeing an increase in new cases (with about half just seeing a continuation of the initial rising trend and the rest seeing “second waves”). However, there are several points to note.

First the total number of new US cases on a daily basis has been relatively stable fluctuating in a range around 20,000 to 25,000 for a month now, with some states seeing falls and others rises – so there is nothing really new here.


Source: ourworldindata.org, AMP Capital

Basically, a rising trend in new cases in southern states (including Texas, Arizona and Florida) and to a lesser extent in western states, has over the last month offset a falling trend in the north east (led by New York) and the mid-west to result in a flat trend overall. And so far, the cities that saw big protests recently have not seen an increase in new cases.


Source: ourworldindata.org, AMP Capital

Second, the rise in cases in the south and west is partly due to an increase in testing with the positive test rate stable to slightly down over the last month in the US as a whole (although some states have seen an increase in positive test results including Washington, Arizona, Utah, Texas and Florida).

Third, hospitalisations and new deaths have been trending down. This is not the case in all states (notably Texas and Arizona are on the rise in terms of hospitalisation) but overall it suggests less pressure on the health system. As can be seen in the next chart, daily deaths have been trending down both in the north east and in the rest of the US.


Source: ourworldindata.org, AMP Capital

Fourth, the lower level of deaths in the US (both in the northeast and the rest of the US) despite a flat trend in new cases, may reflect that the US has learned to better manage new cases and treatments to minimise hospitalisation and deaths. Note that we are seeing more reports of breakthroughs in the treatment of coronavirus and over 100 trials of vaccines around the world.

Finally, the hurdle for a renewed shutdown may now be greater with people suffering quarantine fatigue. A more targeted approach may be more likely (at least initially).

The bottom line is that it’s inevitable that some US states will see flare ups, but as long as hospitalisations stay manageable and deaths stay down a return to a broad-based lockdown threatening a double dip in economic activity in the US is low.

In the meantime, this week’s move by the Fed to start buying corporate bonds directly through its main street lending program (called the Secondary Market Corporate Credit Facility) has underpinned the degree of liquidity support for the US economy that wasn’t there when coronavirus first flared up.

What about a second wave in China?

Over the last three days China has reported an average of 50 new cases a day compared to an average of seven a day over the prior 30 days. Most of these have been linked to a Beijing market with the possibility that the virus may have been connected to salmon imported from Europe. In response several areas of Beijing have been locked down with schools closed and restrictions placed on people leaving the city. This could escalate into something serious. Then again, there has been several flare ups in China in the last three months that have been brought under control with very rigorous testing, tracing and quarantining, as has been the case in South Korea and various other countries including Australia.  


Source: ourworldindata.org, AMP Capital

Concluding comment

A serious second wave of coronavirus cases in major developed countries is the biggest risk facing equity markets, and one investors will need to watch closely. However, provided any second wave is relatively mild in terms of pressure on health systems and the number of deaths, its unlikely to reap the havoc seen back in March. Particularly, given the degree of government and central bank support now in place. The risk should be able to be minimised with lots of testing, tracking and quarantining. As such, our base case remains that the pullback in shares over the last week is part of a correction in a broader rising trend.  

 

Source: AMP Capital 17 June 2020

Important notes: While every care has been taken in the preparation of this article, AMP Capital Investors Limited (ABN 59 001 777 591, AFSL 232497) and AMP Capital Funds Management Limited (ABN 15 159 557 721, AFSL 426455) (AMP Capital) makes no representations or warranties as to the accuracy or completeness of any statement in it including, without limitation, any forecasts. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This article has been prepared for the purpose of providing general information, without taking account of any particular investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. An investor should, before making any investment decisions, consider the appropriateness of the information in this article, and seek professional advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation and needs. This article is solely for the use of the party to whom it is provided and must not be provided to any other person or entity without the express written consent of AMP Capital.

Shares climb a “wall of worry” – but is it sustainable?

Date: Jun 16th, 2020

After a roughly 35% plunge from their February high point to their lows around 23 March on fears regarding of global recession on the back of the coronavirus shutdowns, share markets have since rebounded sharply, led by US shares. The rally has pushed the Australian ASX 200 back through 6000 for the first time since March.


Source: Bloomberg, AMP Capital

A common concern is that the rebound in share markets is “too optimistic” and “irrational” – how can share markets rebound so rapidly when economic conditions are so weak, coronavirus uncertainty remains high, the US is seeing civil unrest and US/China tensions are rising? I must admit that I have also been surprised by the speed of the rebound and think maybe the markets are ahead of themselves. But I have seen this happen before and it reminds me of the quotation from the investor Sir John Templeton “bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on scepticism, mature on optimism and die of euphoria” as this rally has occurred against a lot of pessimism with shares climbing a wall of worry. But as the quote reminds us, that’s what they often do. The plunge in shares into March led the coronavirus hit to activity & fear of recession on the way down and in the process surprised many at the severity of the fall and now it’s led on the way up despite still lots of worries.

Key drivers of the rally

So what’s driven the rally? In early April we listed signposts to watch as to whether shares have bottomed. The key signposts are updated in this table.


Source: AMP Capital

Virtually all of the signposts now tick off positively for developed countries. These are highlighted in green. So, put simply the rebound in shares has been driven by a combination of:

  • Falling new coronavirus cases in developed countries.


Source: ourworldindata.org, AMP Capital

  • Positive news regarding anti-virals and vaccines.

  • The reopening of developed countries as lockdown measures have been eased. This includes Australia which has gone from mildly severe lockdown to intermediate.


Source: Oxford University, AMP Capital

  • Massive fiscal and monetary support measures which have swamped those seen in the GFC. This has helped preserve businesses, jobs and incomes preventing defaults. Low interest rates also help make shares attractive for investors.

  • Green shoots of recovery. With the progressive relaxation of lockdowns, timely measures of economic data such as consumer confidence, restaurant bookings, retail foot traffic, credit card data, mobility indexes and jobs data suggest that US and Australian economic activity bottomed in April. See the next chart. Global business conditions indicators often referred to as PMIs also started to turn up in May after a plunge into April. This follows a similar pattern in China.


Source: AMP Capital

  • Investors being pessimistic and underweight shares after the plunge in March. This has meant there has been more investors who can be motivated to buy shares than sell.

These considerations have simply swamped concerns about civil unrest in the US (which now appears to be settling down anyway) and US-China tensions.

Confirmation from other markets

It’s not just shares that have rebounded as the rally has been confirmed by other growth sensitive assets/yields. In particular:

  • Oil and metal prices are up sharply from their lows.

  • Commodity currencies like the $A have rebounded at the same time that the safe haven US dollar has fallen.

  • Bond yield have lagged the upswing in share markets, but they have now started to rise, albeit they remain very low.

So why has the US share market led on the way up?

The US share market has a relative high exposure to tech and health care stocks that have been key beneficiaries of the coronavirus shock, Amazon is now 55% of retail stocks’ market capitalisation and the US has also seen more money printing or QE by the Fed compared to other countries including Australia. By contrast, non-US and Australian shares are more cyclical – but should start to benefit as the recovery continues.

Correction risk

After huge rallies most shares are technically overbought which could mean we see a correction over the next few months. But many shares in many share markets are at overbought extremes often seen in the aftermath of major bear market lows and this augurs well for returns on a 6-12 basis.

But what about the slump in earnings?

Earnings are taking a big hit from the impact to economic activity and this has seen earnings estimates slump and price to earnings multiples surge. This is clearly a concern but note a typical “cyclical” rebound in shares goes through three phases.

  • Phase 1 sees an unwinding of cheap valuations helped by easy monetary conditions but with receding downside risks causing some investors to snap up undervalued shares. This is the phase where shares climb a “wall of worry”.

  • Phase 2 is driven by strengthening profits.

  • Phase 3 sees euphoria with very bullish investors pushing shares to extreme levels. This is despite shares becoming expensive and central banks raising interest rates.

Right now, we are nearing the end of Phase 1. As economic conditions recover profits are likely to strengthen and we will move into Phase 2. While PEs are now high, it’s noteworthy that the equity risk premium which can be crudely measured as the gap between earnings yields (using forward earnings) and bond yields is still reasonable reflecting ultra-low bond yields. But an improvement in earnings will be a key thing to watch for.


Source: Thomson Reuters, AMP Capital

What are the key risks?

The three big risks are: a second wave of coronavirus cases (which should be able to be avoided with lots of testing, tracking and quarantining and even if it does occur may not have the same negative economic impact as any renewed lockdown is likely to be milder and deaths are likely to be lower given greater preparedness); collateral damage from the shutdowns resulting in a delayed or very slow recovery as bankruptcies surge and unemployment goes higher (so far so good – with government and central bank support hopefully heading this off); and risks around the US election (such as Trump ramping up tensions with China if he feels he has nothing to lose or investors fretting about higher taxes and more regulation under a Democrat victory across the Presidency, House and Senate).

Concluding comment

Shares are vulnerable to a short-term consolidation or pullback. But if we are right and April was the low in economic conditions then shares are likely to be higher on a 6 to 12-month horizon. The experience of the last few months highlights just how hard it is to time market bottoms – a good approach for long-term investors is to average in over several months after major falls.

 

Source: AMP Capital 10 June 2020

Important notes: While every care has been taken in the preparation of this article, AMP Capital Investors Limited (ABN 59 001 777 591, AFSL 232497) and AMP Capital Funds Management Limited (ABN 15 159 557 721, AFSL 426455) (AMP Capital) makes no representations or warranties as to the accuracy or completeness of any statement in it including, without limitation, any forecasts. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This article has been prepared for the purpose of providing general information, without taking account of any particular investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. An investor should, before making any investment decisions, consider the appropriateness of the information in this article, and seek professional advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation and needs. This article is solely for the use of the party to whom it is provided and must not be provided to any other person or entity without the express written consent of AMP Capital.

What the coronavirus stimulus package means for individuals, retirees and the Australian economy

Date: Mar 27th, 2020

With the COVID-19 coronavirus crippling the Australian economy and affecting livelihoods, the Australian Federal Government has announced a range of measures to support both businesses and individuals.

The information in this article was last updated on Wednesday 25 March.

The total stimulus announced to date is worth $189 billion, or 10% of the size of the Australian economy, and the government has said more financial support will be announced over the coming months.

Here we explain some of the benefits you may be eligible for.

Coronavirus supplement

For the next six months, the government will establish a new coronavirus supplement worth $550 per fortnight. This will be paid to both existing and new recipients of JobSeeker Payment, Youth Allowance Jobseeker, Parenting Payment, Farm Household Allowance and Special Benefit, doubling the payment for those currently on these benefits to $1,100 per fortnight. Students receiving Youth Allowance, Austudy and Abstudy will also be eligible.

Asset tests and waiting periods that typically apply to these types of payments will be waived, and eligibility will be extended to permanent employees who are temporarily stood down.

Sole traders, the self employed, casual workers and contract workers whose volume of work has been affected may also be eligible, provided they’re earning less than $1,075 a fortnight. These payments will begin from 27 April 2020.

Household stimulus payments

The government is providing two separate, tax-free $750 payments to social security, veteran and other income-support recipients, including those on the Age Pension, and eligible concession card holders.

The first payment will be made from 31 March 2020 and the second payment from 13 July 2020.However, people eligible for the coronavirus supplement (detailed above) won’t be entitled to the second payment.

It’s expected that up to 6.6 million people will be eligible for the first payment and around five million for the second payment, with around half of these pensioners.

Temporary access to super

The government will allow some people affected by the coronavirus to access up to $10,000 of their super between now and 1 July 2020, and a further $10,000 in the first three months of the 2020-21 financial year, tax free.

Those who are eligible include the unemployed, people receiving JobSeeker Payment, Youth Allowance Jobseeker, Parenting Payment, Farm Household Allowance and Special Benefit. And also people who’ve been made redundant, had their work hours reduced by 20% or more or sole traders whose turnover has reduced by 20% or more since 1 January this year.

Applications can be made online from mid-April by using myGov. Members will self-certify that they satisfy the eligibility criteria. Please contact us on |PHONE| to discuss.

Support for retirees

To assist those in retirement the government is temporarily reducing minimum super drawdown requirements for account-based or allocated pensions, annuities and similar products by 50% for the current financial year and the 2020-21 financial year. This should reduce the need for retirees to sell investment assets in the current soft sharemarket conditions to fund their minimum drawdown requirements.

In addition, the upper and lower social security deeming rates will also be reduced by 0.25% from 1 May in recognition of the impact of persistent low interest rates on retirees’ savings. This comes on top of a 0.5% reduction announced earlier in March.

The government says the change will benefit around 900,000 income support recipients, including around 565,000 people on the Age Pension who will, on average, receive around $105 more from the Age Pension in the first full year that the reduced rates apply.

Minimum payment rates for account-based and allocated income streams

Source: Australian Government’s Economic Response to the Coronavirus: treasury.gov.au/coronavirus

State and territory stimulus

The state and territory governments have also announced economic stimulus packages. The majority of these have so far focused on businesses, however there have been a few measures for individuals, including:

  • Western Australia: The WA Government has frozen scheduled increases for household fees and charges, including electricity, water, motor vehicle charges, the emergency services levy and public transport fares, which were previously due to increase by $127 from 1 July. And the Energy Assistance Package, which is available to eligible concession card holders, will be doubled from $300 to $600 from 1 July.

  • Tasmania: The Tasmanian Government has announced one-off payments of $250 for individuals (or up to $1,000 for families) who are required to self-isolate. Recipients must hold a Health Care Card, Pensioners Concession Card or be low-income earners who can demonstrate a need for financial support, including casual workers.

  • Australian Capital Territory: The ACT Government will give rebates of $150 on household rates, as well as freeze a number of fees and charges, including the fire and emergency services levy, public transport, vehicle registration and parking fees. Public housing tenants will receive $250 in rental support, as well as a one-off rebate for residential utility concession holders of $200 to help with power bills.

  • Queensland: The Queensland Government has announced a $200 rebate for all Queensland households (including the $50 Asset Ownership Dividend already announced) to offset the cost of water and electricity bills, which will be automatically applied through electricity bills.

Outlook for the Australian economy

AMP Capital Senior Economist Diana Mousina says that while the government stimulus is welcome, it’s unlikely to be enough to keep Australia from falling into recession.

Ms Mousina says that the combined economic impact of the summer bushfires, lower Chinese tourism and education spending, global coronavirus shutdown and recessions in the US and Europe will all take a toll, however the government’s spending measures should help to limit the severity of the downturn.

“The fiscal stimulus package will help in limiting the depth of the Australian recession, it will help to keep companies afloat (and should provide some limit for keeping the unemployment rate from skyrocketing) and it is necessary to get a strong recovery after the virus has run its course.”

Due to the uncertainty around the country’s economic position, the Federal Government has also announced that it will postpone the next Federal Budget. The budget is usually handed down in May, but has been postponed until 6 October 2020.

Please contact us |PHONE| if you would like to discuss.


Source: Australian Government’s Economic Response to the Coronavirus: treasury.gov.au/coronavirus

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