Category: Rss-feed-market

Lessons from 2019

Economic growth is slowing, but still growing

Following the Australian federal election in 2019, those of us who were optimistic about the outlook for Australian GDP growth were surprised at the extent to which the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut interest rates. However, these cuts were also in the context of weak consumer confidence, housing price instability and low wage growth which led to a generally flatter mood, driving growth lower. From a real estate perspective this has yielded mixed results.

On the one hand, slowing economic growth has had an impact on demand and rental growth as businesses and consumers choose to save rather than take on new space. But on the plus side, falling interest rates typically coincide with rising real estate values, which we saw in 2019 as investors exploit the gap between lower interest rates and their rental yield.

With returns for fixed income products falling to record lows, investors have favoured real estate’s average return of 9.8% for the year to December 2019 (MSCI/IPD Total Return Index), in order to generate the higher, more attractive returns for their portfolios.

Lower for longer and longer is the new normal

Falling interest rates and slowing economic growth have cemented this lower for longer and longer period of minimalist expansion which will arguably be the new “norm” going forward.

Prior to 2019, economic growth levels were pointing to renewed momentum, finally breaking free of the quantitative easing period that prevailed post the Global Financial Crisis. However, with growth levels so anaemic, quantitative easing – where the Reserve Bank becomes an active buyer of government and corporate bonds to inject liquidity into the economy – now looks like the most likely outcome.

This has driven returns on traditional savings products like term deposits and government bonds to new lows, forcing investors to move into other asset classes to generate income streams that can sustain their retirement lifestyle, or boost their savings.

Real estate investment cycle extended… but not all sectors benefited

Commercial real estate yields, which reflect the value of rent against the asset price, have been compressing consecutively since 2009, marking the longest growth cycle ever recorded (JLL REIS Data). We expect to see this cycle prolonged as investors chasing more attractive returns move into real estate and out of more liquid asset classes like equities and bonds.

The one exception to this rule in 2019 was the retail sector, which saw mixed results. There are multiple global forces driving down retail values – rising competition from e-commerce, shrinking investor appetite for exposure to the sector and changing consumer habits favouring less “shopping for stuff” in favour of experiences and convenience-based offerings.

While last year marked a turning point for retail, on a global basis, Australian retail still remains more competitively priced due to its scarcity and our robust population growth compared to the US and UK where retail valuations have been falling by as much as 40% (CBRE Research).

On balance, 2019 was a positive year for real estate investors. The risks and rewards became clearer as central banks responded to sluggish growth and improving capital values benefitted from low interest rates. We also saw risks on the demand side rising as consumer and business confidence hit record lows. With this in mind, where next for 2020?

Investment strategies for 2020

Residential

Residential is benefitting more than most real estate asset classes from the immediate effects of falling interest rates. With mortgages now priced below 3% in some cases, home buyers have plunged back into the market, reversing the pricing downturn of 2017-18.

With the prospect of more rate cuts in 2020, house values are anticipated to remain in positive growth territory for at least another one to two years.

Populous markets like Sydney and Melbourne remain the firm favourites to deliver the most stable growth over the medium term, however recovery markets such as Perth and Brisbane will offer investors more affordable entry points, with higher growth upside as these markets enter a sustained upswing beyond 2021.

Office

While office was the market leader for total returns, 2019 saw returns across most major markets decelerate as the impact of slowing economic growth created a drag on rental growth, particularly in Sydney and Melbourne.

While demand from tenants is expected to slow in 2020, rents should remain solid as there are no signs of a supply breakout before 2022.

Pricing in all office markets is also expected to rise this year, as global investor demand for Australian office product remains very strong.

Beyond the core markets of Sydney and Melbourne, which will still deliver strong, but slowing returns, the resource states of Brisbane and Perth remain on track for recovery led growth in the short to medium term.

Value add strategies, such as retrofitting older office stock and upgrading facilities in prime locations which remain highly prized by tenants for their amenity and offer good core fundamentals, are worth considering to generate higher returns and long term rental income.

Industrial and logistics

Logistics is expected to outperform all commercial real estate sectors in 2020, providing investors with the highest total returns in both capital and income growth. This is predicated on three key drivers:

• Global demand for logistics assets from investors is already at record levels (refer to first chart below), as portfolios are re-weighted away from retail, which will provide short and long-term support to pricing; 

• Rental growth will benefit from an increasing sophistication of the tenant pool as it transitions from blue collar sectors to more technology enabled, consumer led products; and

• The average price of an industrial asset is typically 80-90% lower than a retail or office asset, making it a highly liquid market. But with such strong competition for product, accessibility will be difficult.

In order to acquire logistics assets, investors can consider infill sites – older facilities with shorter lease terms in highly sought-after markets with rising land values or development sites in larger greenfield locations with longer lease terms and newer generation assets.

Another strategy gathering momentum is the repurposing of other property types for logistics use. Bulky goods retail or smaller shopping centres in strategic locations can make good conversion opportunities whilst delivering rental income over the medium term.

While 2020 is set to be logistics’ year to come out on top, not all logistics and industrial assets are created equal, so careful site selection and tenant vetting will be critical to minimise risk.

Retail

Turning to the retail sector, the new war for consumers is being spread between two distinct camps – convenience and experience.

The convenience end of the bell curve favours supermarkets, food services and other essential household services. This is why we have seen smaller format neighbourhood centres continue to show positive capital growth as investors seek low volatility, smaller more liquid assets.

On the experience side, this is where the super regionals dominate the market as they have the largest footprint and an array of offerings such as cinemas, restaurants, car parking and global fashion brands. Consumers will go here to have a social experience with their friends and also access their convenience services.

While pricing for retail on the whole will show some softening in 2020, it won’t be as much as we previously anticipated. Online sales, which currently account for 7% of all retail spend (ABS), will continue to challenge the bricks and mortar sector, but with 93% of our spend still in store, the overwhelming majority of our retail spending will remain in shopping centres for the foreseeable future.

Final thoughts

Overall the outlook for real estate is bifurcating – on the one hand, pricing growth will accelerate across most sectors in 2020, as the benefits of cheap debt and attractive returns keep investor demand levels high.

However, this optimism needs to be measured with a sober reflection on the weak fundamentals of the Australian economy, which continue to amplify the risks on the demand side.

The good news is, the picture emerging is a lot clearer than in 2019, and despite a record growth cycle, the evidence suggests there is still more upside for real estate investors in 2020 and plenty of opportunities across sectors to find solid returns (refer second chart below).

Author:  Luke Dixon, Head of Real Estate Research – Real Estate Sydney, Australia

Source: AMP Capital 18 Feb 2020

Important notes: While every care has been taken in the preparation of this article, AMP Capital Investors Limited (ABN 59 001 777 591, AFSL 232497) and AMP Capital Funds Management Limited (ABN 15 159 557 721, AFSL 426455) (AMP Capital) makes no representations or warranties as to the accuracy or completeness of any statement in it including, without limitation, any forecasts. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This article has been prepared for the purpose of providing general information, without taking account of any particular investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. An investor should, before making any investment decisions, consider the appropriateness of the information in this article, and seek professional advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation and needs. This article is solely for the use of the party to whom it is provided and must not be provided to any other person or entity without the express written consent of AMP Capital.

At home and abroad, major events have rattled global markets in the first quarter and are set to have an ongoing impact. However, it’s not all bad news, and as always – it’s a good idea to turn down the noise.

The United States and Europe

You might not know it from the headlines, but there has been some positive data coming out of the US this month.

This includes:

• The ISM (Institute for Supply Management) manufacturing conditions index rebounded into positive territory in January.

• The non-manufacturing ISM conditions index also rose and it remains solid.

• Small business optimism remains high.

• Jobs growth remained strong in January with unemployment remaining ultra-low

• Earnings seasons results have been generally good: Taking a look at data up to February 7, 64% of US S&P 500 companies had reported, with 76% beating on earnings expectations by an average of 5%. Further, 67% had beaten sales expectations. Earnings growth looks to be up by about 2.5% year-on-year, compared to market expectations a few weeks ago for a 2% decline.

Brexit is (finally) here

The United Kingdom officially left the European Union on January 31, after years of negotiations.

In good news for markets, so far, it appears the UK parliament is leaning towards wanting free trade to continue between the UK and the EU. Time will tell whether a deal is agreed by year end or not. But the key point is that Brexit has not contributed to the domino effect of countries wanting to leave the Eurozone that had been feared a few years ago. If anything, the Eurozone looks more determined to stay together.

Also:

• In January, Eurozone business conditions PMIs (Purchasing Managers Index) were revised up and are continuing to recover from the lows experienced last year.

• Likewise, global business conditions indicators also continued to recover in January

News from Australia

For some time, Australia will be dealing with the implications of the bushfires which ravaged the east coast. The mega-blazes which formed over the Christmas and early 2020 periods were largely extinguished after a deluge of rain in recent weeks, but we can expect a hit to GDP, especially in the March quarter.

In saying that, there has been some positive economic data recently.

• House prices were up solidly again in January. 

• Building approvals fell just 0.2% in December, but this followed an 11% gain in November, and they are up slightly on a year ago.

• Job ads also rose in January. 

• Retail sales were soft in December, but real retail sales managed an okay rise in the December quarter as a whole.

• The trade surplus remained high in December

The Coronavirus, China and global markets

The 2019 novel coronavirus, commonly referred to as the Coronavirus, was declared an international public health emergency by the World Health Organisation (WHO) on January 30 this year. This is, first and foremost, a human crisis.

There has been understandable concern about the knock-on impact to markets. At the moment, share markets have seen falls, with the Chinese market taking the biggest hit at about 12% followed by Asian shares. For global and Australian shares there have been falls at around 3%, although some or all of this has been reversed depending on the market.

No doubt, the Coronavirus will have an impact on markets for a while yet, particularly for China. Trade, people movement and confidence has been restricted, so it follows that we can expect the global and local Asian economies to take a short-term hit.

Keeping an eye on context

There are some points about this situation that are being lost in the noise, including:

• Fear can be louder than reality  

The current situation regarding the Coronavirus is highly uncertain. However, the experience with SARS, bird flu, swine flu and Ebola in recent history highlight worst-case pandemic fears don’t usually eventuate. 

In the last century, there were three influenza pandemics. The 1918 Spanish flu pandemic was most severe, killing about 50 million people worldwide. Economic activity was severely disrupted as people stayed in their homes, compounded by the end of World War I. Nothing has surpassed this since, which was 102 years ago.

A more relative case is the SARS outbreak in 2003. SARS infected about 8000 people, mostly in Asia, after an initial outbreak in China. SARS had a big negative impact on the countries most affected as people stayed home for fear of catching it. GDP in China, Hong Kong and Singapore slumped by over 2% in the June quarter of 2003. Growth then subsequently rebounded.

• Containment measures are aggressive

When compared to SARS, the containment measures from China in particular have been more aggressive and started earlier. Airlines and nations worldwide have imposed tight travel bans in and out of China and the Wuhan’s Xubei province, where the outbreak started. This may partly explain why 99% of cases have still been confined to China with about two thirds in Xubei province.

With measures such as these in mind, our base case scenario (with 75% probability) is one of containment over the next month or two. In this case, GDP in China and parts of Asia would likely take a 2 to 3% hit or maybe even deeper. Australian GDP could also take a significant hit in the current quarter as resource exports, tourism and education are impacted and this could see GDP go negative. But growth would then rebound in the June quarter. If this occurs shares, commodity prices and the Aussie dollar could see more volatility and downside in the near term but will largely be able to look through the short term economic and profit disruption to the eventual rebound.

A cool head

As I’ve long said – keeping your head calm in extreme times is critical. This includes when the crowd is convinced that disaster is upon us. These periods present temptation to make fear-based investment decisions, which seldom reaps results. So, in the interest of your investments long term best health keep calm, and carry on.

Author:  Dr Shane Oliver, Head of Investment Strategy and Economics and Chief Economist, AMP Capital Sydney, Australia

Source: AMP Capital 17 Feb 2020

Important notes: While every care has been taken in the preparation of this article, AMP Capital Investors Limited (ABN 59 001 777 591, AFSL 232497) and AMP Capital Funds Management Limited (ABN 15 159 557 721, AFSL 426455) (AMP Capital) makes no representations or warranties as to the accuracy or completeness of any statement in it including, without limitation, any forecasts. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This article has been prepared for the purpose of providing general information, without taking account of any particular investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. An investor should, before making any investment decisions, consider the appropriateness of the information in this article, and seek professional advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation and needs. This article is solely for the use of the party to whom it is provided and must not be provided to any other person or entity without the express written consent of AMP Capital.

At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 0.75 per cent.

The outlook for the global economy remains reasonable. There have been signs that the slowdown in global growth that started in 2018 is coming to an end. Global growth is expected to be a little stronger this year and next than it was last year and inflation remains low almost everywhere. One continuing source of uncertainty, despite recent progress, is the trade and technology dispute between the US and China, which has affected international trade flows and investment. Another source of uncertainty is the coronavirus, which is having a significant effect on the Chinese economy at present. It is too early to determine how long-lasting the impact will be.

Interest rates are very low around the world and a number of central banks eased monetary policy over the second half of last year. There is an expectation of a little further monetary easing in some economies. Long-term government bond yields are around record lows in many countries, including Australia. Borrowing rates for both businesses and households are at historically low levels. The Australian dollar is around its lowest level over recent times.

The central scenario is for the Australian economy to grow by around 2¾ per cent this year and 3 per cent next year, which would be a step up from the growth rates over the past two years. In the short term, the bushfires and the coronavirus outbreak will temporarily weigh on domestic growth. The household sector has been adjusting to a protracted period of slow wages growth and, last year, to a decline in housing prices, with the result that consumption has been quite weak. Following this period of balance-sheet adjustment, consumption growth is expected to pick up gradually. The overall outlook is also being supported by the low level of interest rates, recent tax refunds, ongoing spending on infrastructure, a brighter outlook for the resources sector and, later this year, an expected recovery in residential construction.

The unemployment rate declined in December to 5.1 per cent. It is expected to remain around this level for some time, before gradually declining to a little below 5 per cent in 2021. Wages growth is subdued and is expected to remain at around its current rate for some time yet. A further gradual lift in wages growth would be a welcome development and is needed for inflation to be sustainably within the 2–3 per cent target range. Taken together, recent outcomes suggest that the Australian economy can sustain lower rates of unemployment and underemployment.

Inflation remains low and stable. Over 2019, CPI inflation was 1.8 per cent and underlying inflation was a little lower than this. The central scenario is for CPI inflation to be around 2 per cent in the near term and to fluctuate around that rate over the next couple of years. In underlying terms, inflation is expected to increase gradually to 2 per cent over the next couple of years.

There are continuing signs of a pick-up in established housing markets. This is especially so in Sydney and Melbourne, but prices in some other markets have also increased. Mortgage loan commitments have also picked up, although demand for credit by investors remains subdued. Mortgage rates are at record lows and there is strong competition for borrowers of high credit quality. Credit conditions for small and medium-sized businesses remain tight.

The easing of monetary policy last year is supporting employment and income growth in Australia and a return of inflation to the medium-term target range. The lower cash rate has put downward pressure on the exchange rate, which is supporting activity across a range of industries. Lower interest rates have assisted with the process of household balance sheet adjustment. They have also boosted asset prices, which in time should lead to increased spending, including on residential construction. Progress is expected towards the inflation target and towards full employment, but that progress is expected to remain gradual.

With interest rates having already been reduced to a very low level and recognising the long and variable lags in the transmission of monetary policy, the Board decided to hold the cash rate steady at this meeting. Due to both global and domestic factors, it is reasonable to expect that an extended period of low interest rates will be required in Australia to reach full employment and achieve the inflation target. The Board will continue to monitor developments carefully, including in the labour market. It remains prepared to ease monetary policy further if needed to support sustainable growth in the economy, full employment and the achievement of the inflation target over time.

Source: Reserve Bank of Australia, February 4th, 2019

Enquiries

Media and Communications
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Reserve Bank of Australia
SYDNEY

Phone: +61 2 9551 9720
Email: rbainfo@rba.gov.au

Movements on the global and domestic stage in 2019 have driven home some tried-and-tested lessons in investing, markets, and keeping your cool.

Each year, we see new leaders, new policies, and new conflicts which impact markets. At the ground level, it can be tempting to get caught up – or overwhelmed – by the micro.

However, if we take a look at some key themes and events from the year that was, we see that some evergreen investment principles have yet again applied to 2019, and likely will for 2020.

2019 in hindsight

1. Highs and lows

Seasoned investors will be familiar with Warren Buffett’s much-used quote: “Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.” A retro look at the last 12 months tells us, yet again, that expression rings true.

This time a year ago, there was a lot of negative sentiment about share markets. At home and overseas, shares fell sharply until about Christmas last year. By Christmas eve, the US share market had fallen 20 per cent from its high in September.

By the start of this year, markets had promptly turned around, and this year turned out to be a reasonably good year for share markets. It was a classic case of the market bottoming out when negative sentiment had reached fever pitch.

2. Negative noise

Throughout 2019, there have been several significant negatives that we could point to. Global debt is high and unemployment is rising. Those factors are contributing to heightened social tensions, which are seeing a rise in populist leaders, and a backlash against what many would consider ‘sensible’ economic policies.

Without doubt, as a result, there are events happening globally that are rattling markets. The trade war with the US and China is a fitting example of that – two global superpowers swinging between stalemate and vitriol has directly impacted markets and confidence.

Despite the backdrop of major events like the trade war, there are several other factors which counter the negative. For example, inflation is still low, and interest rates the world over are still low. We know that these conditions make for good investment returns. We are also seeing an unprecedent spike in technological innovation globally. Also, there is rapid growth in middle class populations throughout Asia. All of these things contribute to market opportunities, and should be considered just as much as the black spots.

3. Begin with the end in mind

The hunt for yield this year has been a hunt indeed. There is a lot of anxiety about the implications of the lower-for-longer environment on retirees.

The key question here is: what is most important to you? Is it the absolute security of your investment? In that case, you have to wear the low yields for now, and get the guarantee of a cash holding.

Many investors have realised though that they’re not getting much out of their bank deposits, and shifted their money to shares or real and unlisted assets. I sense a preparedness on the part of these investors to recognise that while share values can move around, and there are risks in markets like commercial property and infrastructure, the income flow is relatively stable.

In short, to me, the most important thing for self-funded retirees to consider in this environment is whether their priority is absolute security or steady income, and then to work backwards from that.

4. Housing hype

If 2019 taught us anything about residential property in Australia, it’s that just because housing is expensive and household debt levels are high, doesn’t mean house prices are going to crash.

The market turnaround, which kicked off around the middle of the year, also reminds us that there is strong underlying demand in our housing system. It took a few tweaks – like the election outcome and resultant confirmation that the tax system will remain unchanged for property investors and rate cuts – to spark confidence.

We continue to see an unmet underlying demand for housing in Australia. There is often talk of huge supply coming onto the market, and a jump in vacancy rates. This may be the case in some instances, but the key considerations include whether that supply is meeting demand in areas people want to live in, and if the supply is intended for everyday life (for example, it’s not a holiday home.) And most importantly, whether the supply is enough to match strong population growth.

5. Don’t discount the US

At this point in history, despite the growing global force of China, the US continues to dominate in terms of influence on global markets.

We could point to some hard examples of this, such as during the tech wreck in the early 2000s. The US went into recession at that time, and although Australia did not experience recession, our share market still got hit.

A perhaps more relatable example is in day-to-day life. I would venture a guess that even the most seasoned investors would be more in tune with the movements of the US share market on a daily basis than the Chinese share market. If the US share market has a bad day, we brace for it in Australia – it’s in the news, futures will have come down, and awareness is raised. If Chinese shares have a bad day, it might get a mention, but it’s nowhere near as big of an issue.

So, even though in relative terms the US economy has declined, this year has again proven it continues to punch above its weight.

2020 vision

For the year ahead, there’s a few themes market watchers should keep an eye on. Here’s a few for you to consider.

1. The global economic cycle

For me, the key issue next year will be the global economic cycle. As it stands, we expect that global economic growth will pick up again, in response to monetary easing that we’ve seen this year, therefore avoiding a recession at home and abroad. Should that materialise, it will likely result in decent market gains.

2. Pressure at home

In Australia, growth is sluggish, and the economy is running below its potential. This creates an argument for further policy stimulus. We have already seen the government introduce staged tax cuts from early next decade – it’s likely that these could be brought forward.

But assuming this does not occur quickly enough, we also expect to see two more cash rate cuts between now and February, bringing the official cash rate down to 0.25 per cent, which we believe will be its bottom. Any further cuts would unlikely have the desired impact, as banks have already not been passing on the recent drops in full.

The scope for extra stimulus is one of a mix of reasons we don’t foresee a recession next year. There are still measures up the government and Reserve Bank’s sleeve to prevent it.

3. The US and China trade war

The race for the US presidency next year could prompt a short-term turnaround from Trump in this long and drawn-out trade war with China.

History tells us that presidents aren’t re-elected if they let the economy slide into recession, or if unemployment spikes in the run up to the election. Trump wants to get re-elected, and he will be under pressure to put the trade war on hold for a year at least, which he could claim as a win for his leadership and hopefully, the US economy. Further, any good news Trump can announce during the presidential race represents a win for his campaign.

In addition, there is reason for China to want the trade war to settle. The Chinese economy has slowed down, and trade battles don’t help in that context. Also, there’s a risk for the Chinese government that they will be negotiating with a tougher Trump if he is re-elected, into what would be his second and final term.

In the long-term, the ongoing battle between these superpowers is unlikely to dissipate. In short, it has tell-tale signs of the so-called Thucydides Trap, in which a rising power and an incumbent power go to war (of sorts) where there is threat of displacement. This has its origins in the fear felt and acted on by Sparta during the rise of Athens. Fortunately, given both China and the US are nuclear powers a hot war is thankfully unlikely, but some sort of cold war is a high risk.

4. Local politics in the US

The US election is next year, marking the end of Donald Trump’s first term in office. He is now fighting for a second and final term, and has history on his side along with current betting market odds. Often with share markets, it’s a case of better the devil you know. A Trump re-election shouldn’t rattle share markets too much, nor should a victory from a more centrist candidate, like Joe Biden. However, if victory goes to the left, the share market would get nervous.

At the same time, there are impeachment proceedings against Trump. In public, this is amplifying significantly against Trump. Recently US speaker of the house, Nancy Pelosi, has implied Trump’s actions were worse than those of Richard Nixon, who resigned amidst the scandal of Watergate. Still, at this stage it appears unlikely that the upper house would vote to remove Trump from office (as 20 Republican senators would need to desert him), but the whole saga has the potential to rattle markets.

5. Brexit and Boris Johnson

October 31 this year was supposed to be the UK’s “do or die” Brexit Day. Instead, the UK’s Prime Minister Boris Johnson has successfully called a general election in an attempt to break the Brexit stalemate.

All major parties look to be entering the election supporting a soft Brexit or none at all, meaning the risks of a hard Brexit are diminished. Nonetheless, markets will be watching this closely in the months to come. And even if a short-term soft Brexit is agreed to, it could still return as an issue if the UK and EU fail to negotiate a long-term free trade deal by the end of a transition period

The biggest risk for the UK is if the UK leaves with no agreement in place. If this occurs, the UK will break all trade ties overnight and likely revert to World Trade Organisation rules while independent trade agreements are negotiated. This could be disastrous for the US in the short term as 46% of UK exports go to the EU (against 6% of EU exports which go to the UK).

Keep calm and carry on

I have been working in and around investment markets for 35 years now. A lot has happened over that time in Australia and overseas. A few things that come to mind include the 1987 crash, the recession Australia had to have, the Asian crisis, the tech boom/tech wreck, the mining boom, the Global Financial Crisis and the Eurozone crisis. There was also the end of the cold war, a long period of US domination and now the rise of Asia and China.

As the saying goes, the more things change, the more they stay the same. This will remain true of investment markets going into 2020. It’s important to see through the noise, hold a steady hand, and remember that the crowd can panic and get things horribly wrong.

I recently wrote about the nine most important things I’ve learned in my career, which you can read more about it here. I expect these golden rules to apply for the years to come.

Author: Dr Shane Oliver, Head of Investment Strategy and Economics and Chief Economist, AMP Capital Sydney, Australia

Source: AMP Capital 20 Jan 2020 

Important notes: While every care has been taken in the preparation of this article, AMP Capital Investors Limited (ABN 59 001 777 591, AFSL 232497) and AMP Capital Funds Management Limited (ABN 15 159 557 721, AFSL 426455) (AMP Capital) makes no representations or warranties as to the accuracy or completeness of any statement in it including, without limitation, any forecasts. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This article has been prepared for the purpose of providing general information, without taking account of any particular investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. An investor should, before making any investment decisions, consider the appropriateness of the information in this article, and seek professional advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation and needs. This article is solely for the use of the party to whom it is provided and must not be provided to any other person or entity without the express written consent of AMP Capital.